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To: Steve Lee who wrote (77012)	8/8/2001 7:26:44 PM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 93625

Hi Steve Lee; Re how much long Micron can last... I don't have any clue. My gut says *stay away from the memory makers* until the field is reduced to about half the companies that are standing right now. That applies to Samsung as well as Infineon and Micron. Too many of these companies have too much money for this to be a short price war, I think it's going to be a long time before memory is expensive again (18 months). Maybe we've seen the bottom on prices, but I don't think they're going to rise any time soon. I guess if my job depended on it, I'd try to figure out exactly how much surplus production there is out there, and then try to figure out the cash flows, etc., etc., etc., but my job only depends on being able to pick the winning memory technology, not the winning (surviving would be a better word) memory makers. The world is awash with cash. You mention Micron and the convertible they just sold. [Laughs briefly at the investors who bought that one.] Hyundai just got an infusion of a billion dollars, didn't they? I really think that these guys are going to be "p:ssing away money", but at each other for the next 18 months or so. Let's see. NEC has said that they're getting out of the memory business. That's good, but not until 2005, that's bad. I don't remember anything from Hitachi or Elpida. Toshiba has closed 1/2 their (2) memory fab lines, permanently, with no plans to reopen. (They're going to use it as a "clean room", LOL!!!) That's good, that's the sort of news we will have to see repeated a bunch more times before memory bottoms. I think that Hyundai closed a fab, but only to retool for even higher production. This is not good news for memory prices. Micron has given no hint that they're going to do anything other than flood the world with DRAMs. My prediction is that they're going to do exactly that. Sometime in the next 18 months, I would guess that Micron is going to be a lot cheaper than it is now, and it will be a great bargain. I don't think Samsung has said a word about reducing production. They are in a bit of a bind. They can't convert a significant number of their lines over to RDRAM because of the combination of the expense of the equipment and the inelasticity of the niche-type RDRAM market. Note that there is still no spot market for RDRAM. That means that memory makers are still only making RDRAM for firm orders. So what Samsung appears to be doing is converting their SDRAM production over to DDR. But their total production isn't declining. I haven't heard what Infineon is doing. Most of the little players (in Taiwan) seem to be making plans to increase production. They should be getting out real soon now. They got in last year when times were so good. I should note that all of the above is outside my usual bright little circle of expertise, so I'm not sure about the facts. Go look for the EBN, EE-Times &c., articles and check me out before you believe me about this. Certainly I'm not going to put any money on any memory makers any time soon. -- Carl