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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (81288)	8/8/2001 9:40:01 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG- Where do you place the support line for the 5/22 Wedge over the next couple days....have you identified a probable higher point where the market can bounce? And, if I understand you correctly, you see this move down as the last leg, before a probable upside break of the downsloping wedge. That break of upper resistence, I would assume, should lead to a pretty darn nice up move post-break, no? Have I got you right there? tia

To: HairBall who wrote (81288)	8/8/2001 11:10:28 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, looking at the recent pattern of drops to 1942 and 1934, we've had several down days, with an up day towards the end, and another 2-3 days of drops. The Daily Stochastics on the COMPX and NDX indicate neutral right now, so if we have a slightly positive day tomorrow, we may need to have further drops on Friday and possibly Monday morning to get into oversold territory on the daily charts and trigger a bounce. I believe that with the COMPX straying so close to the previous level of support in the 1934-1942 range today, a pivot off 1890 in 2-3 days is not that unlikely. Is it today's steep drop that made it more unlikely for you that we pivot below 1900? The steep slope on the short term charts and the likelihood that we'll be up tomorrow is the only thing that I can see that could put a drop to that level in question, as it will be difficult to stay in that channel without going lower.

To: HairBall who wrote (81288)	8/9/2001 10:05:08 AM
From: eichler	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, My comment was not in opposition to the falling wedge which I have been aware of for quite some time, especially since I read your posts and recall clearly that you pointed it out as you mentioned near 7/11... My comment of trading range "of sorts" was in appreciation of how the comp really hasn't gone anywhere for a lengthy while. On 6/20 the comp was in the 1960 area. From there we hit a high of 2181, some 200 points higher. Today, we are right back in the 1960 area, exactly where we were on 6/20! I suspect we may have a semantical disagreement, where my comment of trading range is most likely not technically correct, but from a practical point of view seems close enough to me.... Also, the look of the 60 min compx this morning has D- on the ADX peaked and turning back down...so it appears that your expectation of an imminent low looks more likely than not. Also, stochastics are in oversold range. Also given how far price fell away from the ST downtrend line, it appears that a bounce back to the downtrend line at least could very well occur. Best, Eichler