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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: stevenallen who wrote (10023)8/8/2001 9:16:14 PM
From: keithcray  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 208838
 
Buyers need to step up soon, however, or tone could go from short-term neutral to negative... Key support for Nasdaq is in the 1900-1890 area... Meanwhile, would like to see influential SOX index hold above July low of 531

Updated: 09-Aug-01

General Commentary
Market set up nicely in the morning, as indices shook off Cisco's (CSCO) less-than-stellar earnings report to press narrowly higher by late morning... However, buying dried up by midday and sellers retook control... It was a little alarming how quickly the sector knuckled under, especially since there was no obvious development prompting the reversal... Decline gathered momentum as a) the Nasdaq broke back below 2000 and b) the Fed's Tan Book offered no signs of encouragement on the economy.

While no serious technical damage was done to the market yesterday, can't deny that investor sentiment took hit due to yet another failed rally try... Market psychology also undercut by Cisco's comments that business conditions are apt to remain soft for another 3- to 6-months, and by the negative tone of the Tan Book... Traders desperate for more consistent signs that the economy/earnings are levelling off... In absence of such, buyers apparently willing to sit tight and wait.

If buyers are going to be spooked off by every negative earnings/economic report, then turnaround will be much slower in coming than expected... Given that neither the Tan Book nor the Cisco (CSCO) report shed any new light on the economic/earnings picture, Briefing.com admits to being surprised by the magnitude of the market's reaction... It's one thing for indices to drift lower due to investor disappointment, it's quite another to watch them fall like a stone... Nature of yesterday's late decline makes me think it had more to do with utter lack of buying interest than any new found commitment on part of sellers.

Buyers need to step up soon, however, or tone could go from short-term neutral to negative... Key support for Nasdaq is in the 1900-1890 area... Meanwhile, would like to see influential SOX index hold above July low of 531... Given proximity to major support, oversold nature of short-term technicals, and rising put/call ratio, we would expect to see indices bounce... However, we expected the rebound to begin yesterday afternoon, so...

Robert Walberg