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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (40099)	8/9/2001 9:38:37 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

09:13 ET BEA Systems (BEAS) 19.79: Dain Rauscher Wessels says that BEAS needs to reduce forward guidance with next week's earnings report, and that the reduction could be dramatic; says channel checks indicate that July qtr was tough for BEAS. _________________________________________ BTW, BEAS is about at a 2-year low. It's a tough market out there -- especially for the former high flyers...=) Best Regards, Scott

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (40099)	8/9/2001 9:44:28 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Fed Flash--Economy is Slumping Thursday August 9, 8:44 am Eastern Time Forbes.com By Dan Ackman <<News flash from the Federal Reserve: The economy is slowing. Yesterday the Fed published its anecdotal survey of national economic conditions reporting "slow growth or lateral movement in economic activity in June and July." Though the Fed was dead last to report the news, it was the Fed talking, which caused a disproportionate reaction on Wall Street. The Standard & Poor's 500 index slipped 20.87, or 1.7%, to 1,183.53. The Nasdaq, always more volatile, fell further by 61 to 1,966, a 3% loss and its weakest finish since July 24. The Standard & Poor's 500 index slipped 21, or 1.7%, to 1,184. Among the stocks taking hits: Cisco Systems fell $1.28 to $17.98; Dell Computer dropped $1.07 to $26.64; General Electric flopped $1.12 to $41.65; EMC slid $1.28 to $18.30; Juniper Networks fell $2.43 to $23.47; Microsoft plopped $1.49 to 64.86, even as it appealed the antitrust ruling against it to the U.S. Supreme Court. The anecdotal report is also known as the Beige Book, and the report was bland in tone and dull in content. Still, it sent chills down the spines of speculators. The Fed found that the weakness in manufacturing was spreading to other sectors. This observation led some analysts to conclude that the worst of the recent slowdown may not be over. Data on productivity, which increased, and employment, which held steady, issued within the last week tended to point to an opposite conclusion. The one sure lesson: Only a fool takes Wall Street's actions--or reactions--as proof of anything. The one sure thing about Wall Street's reaction to anything is that it will be an overreaction. Many investors were particularly worried about indications of flagging consumer spending--indications again contradicted by reports from other government departments. The strength of consumer spending has been credited with keeping the U.S. economy from entering a recession. "Retail sales were generally sluggish and frequently below expectations, despite substantial discounting on a wide range of consumer goods," the Fed said. Particularly bleak anecdotes concerned factory activity, which has borne the brunt of the economic slowdown this year. The manufacturing sector lost 837,000 jobs the last 12 months. So the slowdown was widely known before the Fed issued its report. "Reports of reduced work hours, lost overtime, forced furloughs, planned shutdowns and layoffs were pervasive," the report said. It noted specific weakness in clothing, computers, semiconductors, steel and telecommunications gear production. "In addition to conditions in the domestic economy, [Fed] districts attributed the current malaise in manufacturing to softening international demand for U.S. goods, particularly in Europe and Asia," the report said. None of this is news. Other highlights: "Agricultural producers continued to struggle against low prices, weak exports, higher energy costs, and the weather." The weather! But didn't we all know that farmers never catch a break? "Districts indicated that residential real estate markets generally remained stable in recent months, though signs of weakness were apparent in some regions?one District reported that homes 'priced right' continued to sell quickly, often attracting multiple bidders." Homes 'priced right' will sell? You don't say. Which district was that? "Fuel and energy prices fell in June and July in most Districts, lessening the burden on businesses and easing pressure on consumer budgets. Lower energy costs also contributed to price declines for a number of manufactured goods." Does this mean the energy crisis, much-feared just a few months ago is officially--or at least anecdotally-- over? And if the energy crisis is over, should anyone be surprised if the overall slowdown ends soon also?>>