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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (141158)	8/9/2001 12:42:59 PM
From: pgerassi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Dear Wanna_bmw: Intel has never gotten list prices for its CPUs from the bulk of its sales. The pricewatch price is always lower than the suggested retail price it quotes. AMD is no different. Intel does not get $170 for its CPUs if it gives the 1000 unit price at that. Its biggest OEMs get large discounts to that, the RIMM rebates, promotions and such reduce still further. Estimates range from 10% to 35% below the lower Pricewatch price. The high ASP for the top of the line could also mean that there are few processors available. Given recent patterns, the processors at the top bin are not generally available until 2 to 3 months after the announcement. The 1GHZ P3 was almost 6 months late to general availability from the announcement. The P3 1.13GHz was listed for a very long time even though it was pulled a month later and less than 200 were sold and have just recently started shipping on a new process. It is still not generally available yet, 10 months, IIRC, later. Historically (before 2 years ago), Intel never released a CPU before production quantities were immediately available. The bulk mainstream P3 has yet to reach 933 MHz even now. It is apparent that the bulk of P4 is in the 1.3 and 1.4 speed bins. Also remember that all CPUs in the pipeline are switched to the lower price immediately after including the OEM inventories (else you really tick off those same OEMs). Also check that lately, the flagship Intel processor is not shippable from the BTOs until a few weeks later (5 weeks means October or Q4 from end of August). All this adds up to lots of short term pain. And so far, units are still far below where they have planned. If they go ahead with the plan, the chances of a substantial hit to Q3 are quite high. The September cuts will make Q3 even worse. I845 may have another negative impact on willingness to get the faster CPUs until DDR (yet another bad ramification from the Rambus deal). Q1-02 may be the best time for Intel as they finally get rid of the millstone around their neck. Pete