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To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (6902)	8/9/2001 8:48:41 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

In my opinion Kyoto etc are very important to set up the institutional framework to cut emissions in the future. A similar pattern was seen with the CFC conventions. Took a long time to get everything set up. But they were ready for big cuts then when the really hard evidence came in. And now the Ozone hole is beginning to recover. I see a view expressed by such people as Lomberg (at U. Aarhus) that it is so hard to cut emissions and the cuts needed are so big so let's just forget about it. I think total warming could be at the lower end of expectations and the necessary cuts smaller than most people expect and the cost of cutting is also likely to be low if done methodically and not in some panic move. The evidence shows that the amount of carbon absorbed by the biosphere is climbing rapidly and the statistical evidence is that the climate sensitivity is lowish - like 2 degrees C for doubling CO2. Physical scientists argue that the absorption increase will be a short-lived phenomenon. But much of the absorption is in the biological realm and difficult to predict. We don't even know where it is going yet. David