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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cordob who wrote (77086)	8/9/2001 10:30:42 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

To try and gauge who buying what in the 100+ M unit PC marketplace is a tough one but I can make some statements about trends and facts that are evident. - ASP have been falling falling and falling. - PC unit sales percentage growth is in low single digits - As ASP fall as unit sales growth stagnate, the new markets for PCs are developing in 2nd and 3rd world countries. This is the area where low cost AMD Duron processors, low end SDRAM intergrated video controllers and SDRAM main memory at dirt cheap prices have mushroomed. This is totally at the expense of Intel loss of business class systems as the direct fallout of the world wide recession and the rapid push for Y2K upgrades in 1999. - DDR is not taking off as simple inspection of your table indicates. I say that convincely since not one machine on your list will be bought by a business of over 50 PCs since that companies MIS manager would have his head handed to him by management if he chose AMD based processor or a system from not one of the top 3 or 4 manufacturers of business class systems. I can convincely state that over 40% of entire system market is Dell, HP Compaq and IBM using Intel based systems sold into business markets. Intel has totally abandoned the P3 since at 1GHz and above some Intel CPUs run at over 70 degrees C -- the exact same bane about corporate acceptance of AMD processors. AMD gets away with these high tempertures since hobbiests buying 1.2 GHZ or faster Athlon systems buy $30-40 highly engineered fans to cool them effectively by using some of the savings of choosing Athlon over P4. Intel tried to bundle under $200 P3 1GHz with a $6 fan but it didn't work out very well for thermal management at the current 0.18 micron CPU technology. So P4 is here in masse very fast since 1+ Ghz P3 was shown to be non competive price wise, performance wise and realibility wise to Athlon platform. I expect P4 to be sold at heavily discounted prices until relatively cheaper 0.15 micron manufacturing technology allows Intel to compete on both price and performance against AMD. john