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To: Mark Fowler who wrote (8259)8/9/2001 11:50:57 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph  Respond to of 57684
 
Glenn that's a hard one i'm begining to doubt myself too. I don't know sometimes its hard to hang tough.


Mark,

I do not believe it is us as much as it is lack of real facts from the management of a variety of companys. No one should be in a better position to understand the fundamentals and the demand trend then the management of the firm. The picture is so often not properly painted. What we know or believe we know is what we study. The material we use to study and predict is typically written by those that listen to management and then extrapolate.

I guess I am saying sometime we do not know if we are coming or going???

I tell what confuses me a lot. The apparently certainly of a huge slowdown in IT spending. This would also mean communications backbones and metro areas. The two cable firms in Erie have completed their cable switch to fibre and that is expected to be complete here by late this fall. This takes capital expenditure and of course equipment from vendors. I can't believe my area is an analmoly (sp) in a vacuum and to prove that the recent report of a huge growth of broadband by the FCC should refute it.



To: Mark Fowler who wrote (8259)8/10/2001 7:36:16 PM
From: Bill Harmond  Respond to of 57684
 
Tonight Juniper reaffirmed guidance on Business Center, CNBC.



To: Mark Fowler who wrote (8259)8/10/2001 7:36:54 PM
From: Bill Harmond  Respond to of 57684
 
From Briefing tonight dated next Monday: Sector was taken to the breaking point last week, but key supports held... The bulls will view sector's resilience as indication that bottom is in place and that market just waiting for more compelling evidence of an economic/earnings turnaround to stage a breakout rally... Bears look at repeated failures to the upside as evidence that it's just a matter of time before we break below the bottom of the May-Aug range and retest April lows.

Briefing.com remains a member of the bullish camp, though, as we noted late last week, we are growing less confident in our intermediate-term bullish outlook... Especially disturbing was last week's sloppy action in the larger-cap leadership names such as Sun (SUNW), Oracle (ORCL), IBM (IBM), Siebel Systems (SEBL), Veritas (VRTS), Cisco (CSCO), Brocade (BRCD, Nokia (NOK) and EMC (EMC)... Weakness in these stocks suggests that institutional investors walked away from sector... Without participation from the big boys will be tough for techs to sustain any upward momentum.

Whether buyers remain on strike or move back into the sector could hinge on this week's earnings reports from Ciena (CIEN), BEA Systems (BEAS), Hewlett-Packard (HWP), Network Appliance (NTAP) and Dell (DELL)... If the universal message is that conditions remain soft and no rebound is seen until some time next year, tough to imagine much buying interest developing... However, with expectations already low, if two or more of these companies offer any encouragement we could see a nice short-term run.

Technicals certainly support the bounce scenario, as short-term momentum indicators are oversold and put-call ratio is high... Also note that Nasdaq/NYSE volume indicator, a oft-used sentiment tool, showing lowest reading since 1998... With sentiment in tech sector so low, this contrary indicator suggests that techs are poised for a nice recovery rally.

Robert Walberg