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To: stomper who wrote (116476)	8/10/2001 12:32:27 PM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 436258

Stomper: Good question and of course all any of us can do is give it our best guess. That said, I expect a crunch this fall. I suspect that we will see things get underway with an all-but-inevitable crushing of the tech bulls, who will take it in the chops as a result of the continuing evaporation of tech revenues and non-existant profits. This is where a remarkable amount of "hope" money has gone and it will of course just move quickly to money heaven. Concurrently, or perhaps shortly thereafter, I would expect to see the financial world commence a nice unravelling. Sub prime lenders and credit card issuers are already bleeding from the ears and once their ability to cover up their ghastly "non-performing" portfolios (through continued growth of "assets"...marvellous irony in the use of that word) disappears, then we should see some delightful high platform dives. Retailers are under revenue pressure already and the lay-offs have only just begun to hit their revenue streams. This noose will tighten as we move into the Christmas selling season and the markets won't take long to sniff out a post-Christmas inventory explosion. I could go on and on. In a nutshell, from my perspective, the meltdown will start to get underway this fall. If we are lucky, the machine guns will be trained on specific sectors, one after another, rather than just a hosing of the whole crowd. Best, Earlie