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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jill who wrote (40182)	8/10/2001 1:49:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 65232

CoolPost of day INFLATION vs RECESSION appeared on QCOM thread #102775 here it is, so you guys dont feel neglected which is what I will slowly do more gambling and risking and deceiving than thinking you know my line / jim GreenMan only has Inflation vs Recession as buttons MMIke, recessions tend not to linger when the Fed eases and he has said before Congress in July that he will ease further the way I see it, the Federal Reserve is in a corner with the USdollar so strong, the Fed has two choices: INFLATION OR RECESSION 1. keep easing to avoid worsening recession this will undercut the US$ some, but lead to some inflation the inflation will become evident in the faster moving financial markets earliest but the easing effect will only last about 2-3 years, if that exports will improve from more advantageous competitive pricing lower rates have already reduced cost structures universally but they have done little to stimulate demand the govt tax refunds will go for beer, shirts, MC balances 2. no more easing and simply let the recession run its course stagnation will envelop the western world right now, all major industrial nations are in recession if not definitional recession, then investment and profit recession the US will track the Japanese path, but not as badly recession will feed upon itself eventually, failures and defaults and bankruptcies will occur on widespread basis this will bring down prices radically in spots, encouraging growth again I think GreenSpasm will choose INFLATION the continued easing is tantamount to socialist sponsored inflation policy he will buy us two years debt loads will rise even more GreenShmidt will not choose RECESSION it is more fair, targeting debt abuse, poor planning but it takes years to work itself through too much time, too much criticism, too much political pressure he can temporarily rescue his legacy before retirement by bringing us recovery with inflation he will then blame the inflation on the Energy sector his legacy is at risk bigtime now / jim