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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Biomaven who wrote (5000)8/12/2001 3:18:41 PM
From: Ed Ajootian  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10280
 
Why haven't the analysts revised their projections of 3Q results yet? Yahoo has consensus at a $.93 loss, which is almost double the loss of 2Q. I know there is some seasonality to the Albuterol sales, but its hard to believe that they will drop off that drastically for 3Q.

To me the loss levels in the next few quarters are very important. If they really end up losing $3 this year and then another $3 next year (which are the consensus estimates), there goes all their cash. I don't believe they will lose anywhere near these amounts and have put my money where my mouth is, buying more stock at $40 last week.

I believe the stock will wake up once everybody gets back from the beach and we get back into medical conference season. Also, I believe the analysts are underestimating the effect of getting a pedriatric indication for Xopenex.

If SEPR in fact is on a pace to lose something more like $.50 this quarter vs. the $.93 loss being projected, then I believe they should buy back some stock. With pooling no longer possible, they now won't screw up a potential buyer of the company.

I still believe this company will be sold sometime before the end of '02. It just doesn't make any sense for these guys to go out and hire 2,000 of their own salespeople when the other big pharmas already have even larger sales forces in place. The synergies from combining SEPR with a large pharma would be enormous.

The only reason I don't believe they will be sold in the near future is that they gotta get Soltara approved first.