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To: fedhead who wrote (116618)	8/10/2001 6:24:43 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<<Why is MSCC trading at these levels? They had a lousy quarter and lowered guidance. This one should be in the 30s.>> MSCC...I haven't a clue why they're this high, I agree, they should be trading in the 30's or lower. I just covered a short, not because they reached a reasonable valuation, but because it was a great gain in 3 days and I wanted to book profits before I go on vacation next week. (An added bonus is the triple top they've put in in the 70-72 area...looks unassailable). As far as semis go, there are so many that are good short candidates (due to the unrelenting hype in this sector since March). My own favorites are MU in DRAM, KLAC and TER in semi equipment, ALTR in PL, RFMD in wireless and MSCC in analog (though MXIM is also pretty rich here)...and add NSM in microprocessors too. Frankly, as Bobcor once put it, it almost makes sense and just hit 'em when they get run up if the inciting news seems to be out of proportion to the move (his term was "play Whack-A-Mole" to describe shorting the pops). I think it's still applicable, until there's some solid evidence that end user demand is rising from the ashes (or until valuations come into line with low points in other cycles, using metrics like price/sales for example). We're a LOOONG way from the latter. I think they will break and when it happens it will be fast and ferocious. The 3rd quarter warning season, set to begin in mid-September may certainly be the point where it gets going for real (though I wouldn't totally exclude it happening after August expiration, maybe after the rate cut "news" is delivered week after next). Right now, my main exposure to the sector is with MU shorts and SMH puts, but I plan to focus on a couple of other plays over the next week or two. Oh, and Micron is frequently referred to as "POS" on this thread. IMO, the posters on CFZ who are best versed in semis would be Earlie, Bobcor, Don Lloyd, and JuliusM (when he's here) though most of us play with these from time to time