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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: deibutfeif who wrote (141298)	8/11/2001 4:28:34 PM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 186894

Facts don't go away even if you pretend they aren't true. Having faith with no evidence to back up your feelings may be a good thing under some circumstances, but it's not so great if what your doing is trying to forecast the computer business, and analyze what has happened in the recent past. The fact is, Intel's liquid assets dropped by $10 Billion dollars, year on year. $10 Billion of Intel's money - gone. Intel's debt is about the same as last year's, and its yet to be depreciated assets and goodwill is up by $5+ Billion. AMD's liquid assets are about even, year on year, its debt dropped by about $400 Million, and yet to be depreciated assets are also about even with last year. While all this happened, AMD market share went up, Intel market share went down, and, since it realizes it could no longer afford it, Intel had to gamble that it won't need SOI, which every other tier one FAB is moving to. IBM, Motorola, AMD, and the leading Taiwan FABs are all moving to SOI. Intel, TI, and the low end Taiwan FABs will have only plain copper. Things happen fast in the semi business. Intel lost half its working capital in a year - and if the rest of the industry is right about SOI, Intel could be finished off as a major player in the semi business by the end of next year. Sitting on the sidelines as the rest of the CPU industry moves to SOI is a heck of a gamble. If SOI doesn't work, the other players still have the same .13 copper technology Intel is using, if SOI is of much use at all, Intel is screwed. AMD would cover the top 25% to 35% of the market while Intel fights it out with VIA and the Tawian FABs for the rest. Intel's operating costs are well over $20 Billion per year. If it's ASPs get slammed because it bet wrong on SOI, it could burn through its remaining $10 Billion in working capital by the end of next year.