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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (21193)8/11/2001 1:00:22 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea  Respond to of 24042
 
Cary, I want to be serious here for a minute with you, and stop joking.
It is OK to joke from time to time, but for a change, let's be serious here for a moment.
You are now quoting Merrill.
Let me remind you, this is the same MER that hired Blodgett to
give a buy to Amazon at $300.
The same MER that paid a pediatrician $500,000 which he lost
when MER had a buy on INSP at ~$60 and forgot to tell
the pediaitrician that they had launched INSP and
so they where committed to support it's price at the
pediatrician's expense.
MER in fact is a cousin? of Goldie ( Goldman ) which
has just told it's analysts that if they recommend a stock
they now have to disc;ose if they have any ownership interests in it.
Finally, it appears that many companies now take the SEC rules
seriously and don't tell anybody any news ahead of time.
They just announce them in toto to the public.
NT has all kinds of lawsuits in Canada because they didn't do that.
And perhaps that's part of why Roth resigned.
That's how we get all these nasty surprises every day now
and we see all these brkers and talk heads smiling sheepishly
working hard at backtracking what they 'd predicted.

So Cary, why don't we just call it for what it is:
these guys are clueless.
They did not predict the collapse, and based on that
brief ( but very violent history ), do you mind
if some of us are a little bit skeptical here
about where they get all their numbers.
And when you tell me that
" well they put a number on their
computer and they get this and that figure extrapolated out "


then I'll tell you the same things I tell my kids:
The computer, "garbage in = garbage out ",
or garba'a'a'a'a'ge as the French like to pronounce it,

TA



To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (21193)8/11/2001 6:59:06 PM
From: sea_biscuit  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 24042
 
There is obvious attraction in a market leader down over 90%. This attraction must be tempered by our knowledge that the top was mania prices and the current situation has the inertia of 1.32 Billion shares.

I agree. I can do no better than quote one of the greatest long-term investors, Ralph Wanger :

" Newspapers, magazines and television
keep telling us that "instantwealth.com"
is down 96% from its high. This sets up
the delicious idea that a stock down 96%
from its high must be cheap now. This is
nothing more than the trap of
"anchoring." The proper solution to this
problem is to understand that these
magical high prices never really
happened. That high-tick trade took
place between two day traders looking at
numbers on their computer terminals, who
were trading a ticker symbol. They
understood the stock as much as the
island people of Tammu understood how to
build a B-29. That high price? Forget
about it. It's like the golf round you
had a few years ago when you shot 38 on
the first nine. It hasn't recurred, it's
not going to happen again, and, if you
think it might, you are doomed to a life
of disappointment and lost bets. I
believe you should look at stocks in
terms of earnings, cash flow, and
realistic growth prospects and ignore
the day-trader fantasies of last year."