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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (50403)	8/11/2001 9:31:17 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Cary, I think that the street is making a major mistake considering the high at $115 for AMAT as a "normal cycle high". That high was influenced by the "bubble" and was at least twice as high as normal pricing for AMAT at prior cycles highs, IMHO. Looking at AMAT's chart, I would venture that the next upcycle in the semi equip will not bring a new all time high in AMAT as it did in prior cycles. Just from the chart (and with some "assumptions" on the strength of the next cycle), I would say that a "fair" target peak for AMAT in the next upcycle will be around $75. The current down cycle is not behaving as prior cycles have, so far, since the low in most semi-equip was set in December last year, but the low in the BTB ratio, so far, has been six month later. I would venture that there is still a strong probability that we revisit those lows in the semi-equip sector (doing a "double dip" exercise?) before the bottom is firmly in place, BWDIK. Zeev