To: jchandler29 who wrote (50407 ) 8/11/2001 12:06:55 PM From: Zeev Hed Respond to This downturn is worse only in its "peak to valley" ratio. The current order rate is still some 40% to 50% higher than at the last through (from memory, in 1998 orders bottomed at about $.5 B monthly and right now we are a tad above $.7 B). Last year, I had some "target lows" for this cycle, and indeed my target low for AMAT was $25 (we never got close), but for CYMI, it was in the $15-$17.5 and we have already achieved that one. During the last cycle, CYMI's low was really a big overshoot (If memory serves, my target was $13 or so, and it got, as you correctly state, $6). I think that overshoot could have been due to the fact that fo CYMI it was its first major "down cycle", and the market was not sure it can survive a major downturn. Today, CYMI is a more mature company, and thus the market did not punish it that much.
