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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (50409)	8/11/2001 12:02:13 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

"< The current down cycle is not behaving as prior cycles have....>>" Scott, The current eco conditions are not behaving like earlier ones as well. Watch the interest rates come down. Why is it religion to you that all cycles must recreate past one. Learn from history--it doesnt repeat if its lessons are learned by folks in command. AG attempting to make this so as is current Bush admin I am sure. Maybe they wont succeed and amat will go to 25 or lower, but maybe they will and the market will recover sooner than you think. The jury is out. You may be right about the outcome but not the basic assumption. mike PS Amat's overly high high in 2000 violates your rule but that was the bubble so there are exceptons

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (50409)	8/11/2001 12:16:08 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 70976

Scott, I am not sure if I grasped the essence of your comments, but I believe partially responded in my last post. AMAT's peak valuation at $115 was an overshoot, which I attribute to far more excessive valuations in the market in general (if JNPR was "worth" $200/share, than AMAT was "cheap" at $115 kind of rationalization), and AMAT staying above $35, because new liquidity allocated to techs simply cannot find many "safer" places. I doubt this cycle will see the $115 this time, not because something is wrong or right with AMAT, but because it will take more than one up cycle to get back to a JNPR above $200. In other words, I do not think that the next bull market will bring the Naz much above 4000 before we are hit with another bear market. Zeev