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Strategies & Market Trends : Winter in the Great White North -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frankly Speaking who wrote (1245)	8/11/2001 6:13:52 PM
From: russet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8273

SUF.t,...the diamonds projects in the short term (next year or two) will add nothing to very little to profits,...the market is very short term oriented right now. PGM price declines from US$1000 plus per oz to threatening the $US400 level have snookered SUF shareprice. The worldwide economic slowdown is hurting the demand for PGM's for catalytic convertors and electronics,...Platinum demand for jewelery is down as well. New catalytic convertor technology looks to reduce the need for Palladium and PGMs, especially over the next few years. On the supply side, more mines in North America and SAf are should boost the supply of PGM metals. If the Russians turn off the taps, it may not cause the big spikes in prices that occurred in the last 18 months or so. SUF might announce an agreement to increase production with a cash rich major mining company,...how much would that add to shareprice,...depends on rate of production? They might finally announce they have finalized a supply contract with a major auto manufacturer,...the price rise associated with that will depend on the details,...floor price especially and quantities contracted for. Too bad they didn't finalize that deal 6 months ago when Palladium was above $1000, might be closer to US$300 in a few months with current trends, unless the $US buck really tumbles, but European interest rates are predicted to move down over the next few quarters because European economies are starting to slow down,...that could lessen the oft predicted drop of the mighty US buck. They could also announce they have secured mining rights from the SAf government for the adjacent PGM properties to the Messina mine development,...don't know when that might occur, but they likely have to prove the Messina mining plan makes money before Mr. Market gets excited about that much,...the best time to secure that may be at a cyclic low in PGM prices, which may occur soon, but then Mr. Market will probably not even care. Finally they might get lucky and find some diamondiferous pipes somewhere, but with money tight for exploration, and most results so far looking skimpy,...and I hear De Bums inventory of diamonds is rising again, prices for rough are dropping, demand for finished dropping,...will the market take much notice?? So short term trends look down, unless some bit of news about contracts, major partner or Russian supply shortage comes out to shake up the market. Should be good for a short term buy and sell on such appreciation from news to allow the squished hamster to inflate a paw or two (gggggggggggg), but catching falling knives(AKA averaging down) is against my rules now.

To: Frankly Speaking who wrote (1245)	8/11/2001 7:24:16 PM
From: russet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8273

SUF.t,...Russians want the Pd price higher,... 8/9/2001 7:20:00 AM LONDON, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Platinum prices plunged again in morning trade on Wednesday to fix at a 19-month low of $433.00 an ounce but traders said good fundamentals might help platinum halt its decline. Traders welcomed a statement by a senior official from Russia's Norilsk Nickel (NKEL) -- the world's largest palladium producer -- who said the company will cut spot sales to boost the low price of palladium. The move, when effective, would induce a positive sentiment in the market, traders said. "Psychologically, in the market, such a move will certainly have a firming effect on prices. I can hardly wait to see Norilsk cutting down its spot sales," a trader said. "Given that more than half of the palladium exported by Norilsk is sold on the spot market, the decision to cut sales could possibly remove anywhere between 300,000 and 600,000 ounces from the market over the remainder of the year," another trader said. Norilsk's annual output is estimated at 2.8 million ounces. Both platinum and palladium extended losses overnight on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM), for the second time in a row, on the back of a dearth of physical demand and concerns about the global economic outlook. By 1119 spot platinum was indicated at $431.00/436.00 a troy ounce, down from Wednesday's New York close of $440.00/445.00. Palladium was indicated at $440.00/450.00, up on last New York quote of $437.00/447.00. "Short term moves in the PGM prices are as hard as ever to predict," John Reade, an analyst at UBS Warburg, said in report. "However, we remain convinced that once this speculative-based selling in platinum abates, the fundamentals behind the platinum market will be reasserted and that both metals will rally through the second half of 20001," Reade said. Traders said that prices went down in a flurry of selling by Japan's small investors who put their savings in platinum to hedge against the yen's decline. "The net (Japan's) general public is now square...In the London fixing this morning both metals fixed quickly with very little interest seen (buying or selling) at fixes," Reade said. The platinum market had been expected to rally following sharp losses since early this week, but speculators had been kept at bay by very thin demand, traders said. Another analyst said news that Norilsk might scale down its spot sales of palladium would also have a positive impact on platinum prices, too. "Investors have gone out of their positions now. I can't really see platinum breaking through $400. If Norilsk withdraws dramatically its spot sales, palladium firms and platinum should also react. We will see higher prices," he said. Six months ago palladium traded at some $1,000 an ounce while platinum was at around $600. Meanwhile, gold traded quietly, locked in its $265/270 range, and continued to take its cue from the foreign exchange markets. Gold started the day on a more positive note after the U.S. dollar weakened in the aftermath of the poor picture painted for the U.S. economy by a Federal Reserve report on Wednesday. "If gold makes it through current levels, we could see it test resistance at $271.50," one said. By 1119 GMT, spot gold was indicatd at $269.20/269.70, up on its last close in New York at $268.10/268.60. Silver was quoted at $4.16/4.18, flat on its last close in New York. REUTERS