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To: salemas who wrote (6973)	8/12/2001 5:15:41 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

I think it was L. Bernstein, who commented mobile phones as follows: "The worst thing that happened to music since the invention of coughing" On european Telecoms: Cash flow after investments relative to interest (1999 and 2001e) British Telecom 7.7 1.1 Deutsche Telecom 3.4 1.3 France Telecom 5.2 0.9 KPN 1,7 0.5 Telefonica 2.7 2.1 Telecom Italia 5.9 2.6 Vodafone 4.4 1.5 Explanation: anything above 1.5 is safe, values below 1.0 mean that new debt is needed to serve the old loans. Source Deutsche Bank Summary: the chances for UMTS to turn profitable depend very much on a narrow window around 2006. The biggest question without any answer yet is the customers' acceptance. But there's hints already, which do not bode well: In a poll of current German mobile phone users (Forsa institute) the following two questions and the answers indicate the dire straights the telcos got themselves into: Q: "in the future, you will be able to surf in internet with your handy. Will you use this capability?" No, I will not 65% Yes, seldom 13% yes, now and then 16% yes, often 6% Q: "(just to those, who would use this capability) If your handy would allow you to surf as fast as PC, how much would you be ready to pay for that?" not more 41% maximum 20% more 49 maximum 50% 6% maximum 100% 2 more than twice 1 In other words of the one third, who would actually use the bandwidth offered, 90% would be ready to see their bill increase by 20% at the most. ___________________________________________ Mobile Valuation - by discounted cash flow, 8% discount, -5% cash flow growth to 2006 and 3% thereafter company [A] [B] [C] Vodafone 7.5% 160pc 97pc Orange 18% 9.08eu 2.87 Telecom IT. Mobile 2.0% 6.50 5.03 Telefonica Movilas 13.5% 6.79 2.85 T-Mobile, the mobile arm of Dt. Telekom (IPO planned next year) has a fair value of about 40% below market according to this study. A the cash flow growth priced in the market price [B] B - market price C - fair value according to DCF Source: BOnline 33