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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (21212)	8/12/2001 12:43:29 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 24042

Hi Tunica, Actually the big hickey coming from inflated lease residuals is going on right now.Bank one wrote off 1.5 Billion,GE capital has exited the automotive area. These vehicles are coming into the used market right now.If you are in the market for aa great used vehicle - SUV are the best value I've ever seen them at. In reality ,the losses incurred are probably close to the savings that digitization has created.GM has 25-28 % of the market - assuming your 20 billion is correct ,and it rolls out over 24-36 months - the length of most leases, it won't be a big factor. Keep in mind GM bought EDS for a billion and a half back in the 90's. The estimated savings equalled the purchase price for years.They then sold the tracking stock and then spun it off. In the big picture cash rich companies can't afford not to continue the digitization of there very old,traditionalized business models.Technology is the only thing that has busted up the good ole boy club - because it pays back so well. This is why you hear Jack Welch GE's retiring CEO state that their budget for IT spending is bigger than ever in 2001. These evolutions in how corporation do business are not lightly implemented - they are piloted first then broadly implemented.It takes an army of trained people to ensure that business doesn't come to a halt during the transition time period. It is my impression that so far - only the big,wellheeled companies have begun the transition.With time all competitors will HAVE to make the move for competitive reasons.This will work down the feed chain,as implementation becomes easier and less expesive to enter. As an example G.M. has just now begun offering dealers to sign up on electronic B2B websites for my parts operation to sell parts to body shops.If doing this gets parts to an independent body shop one day sooner - then the insurance company saves one day rental. Insurance companies send their business to "preferred shops".We are a preferred shop- we must offer life time warranty on our work etc.For us to get more work we must watch our Cycle time(the average duration of repair time). If we are fast we get more work.If this parts ordering cuts repair duration by one day - thework will go to thos eon the website. So then everyone has to become a member of the website.It feeds on itself and then becomes the normal way of transacting business. Soon all those unlit fiber optic cables are being lit up with bodyshop business and parts orders.ggggg It's just a small example but it is going to happen. I have no intentions of building a website and hiring a full time computer person,but I have signed up the dealership for 96.00 per month to see what business might come of it. This will occur in everyday small businesses. Body shop used to have adjusters travel out to look at cars - now we use a digital camera and forward images from 11 preknown angles. That's why I say Orcl is on to something,regarding thousands of small businessesneeding digitization.The sale force that emphasizes small deals instead of GM and GE will gain merketshare.JMHO Bob