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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (50421)	8/12/2001 11:45:13 AM
From: ratan lal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

if we can get a rally going this week and then Greenspan and some better rebate and interest rate economic numbers maybe we can finally put the bottom behind us. We are in an UNCERTAIN period. So I think we will just keep wobbling up and down on any news or anal-list up/downgrades or any jibberish they choose to publish. but my belief remains that AG & W cant afford to lose this battle They lost their opportunity when in April they did not lower the interest rates and started the slide from which we have not been able ot recover so far. >i>Can the economy survive 1000 nasdaq? We will barely scrape by till (unkown or designed) events trigger the long road to a comeback for the economy.

To: michael97123 who wrote (50421)	8/12/2001 2:59:02 PM
From: John Trader	Respond to of 70976

Mike, Thanks very much for that post. You and I tend to both be optimistic, which probably puts us more at risk near market tops, but hopefully pays off near the lows. One thing that works well on this thread is a sort of balancing out of views, for me that means keeping me from being too enthusiastic. Thanks for helping out with this discussion that Cary and I have had. The more I think about it, the more I realize that I went too far in those posts. Hopefully it will all work out ok, we are all human. Thanks again. This has been a learning experience for me. Also, in a broader sense, I think these threads are still a new entity that present fantastic opportunities, but present significant challenges as well. It is like a connection of minds, the human part is still there - in a different way. There I go philosophizing again! Hopefully I am making some sort of sense. Wrote this quickly - got to run now. You are a great guy yourself, probably a better man than I. Regards, John

To: michael97123 who wrote (50421)	8/12/2001 3:41:08 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 70976

Hi Mike, Sure ,rebate the tax overcharges back to those who pay them - done or ongoing. Better yet - quit taking so much and you save the cost of cutting 96,000,000 checks - done and ongoing. I think key to this downturn is an awareness of the lags that are in progress.The rate reduction was accomplished in record size cuts over record short duration of time. I still think that the time lags required to work thru our economy are still in effect.What we witness is the unfolding of the medicine.The time lag can't be accelerated - it must work itself out. Greenspan is good but not God.Cash in consumers pockets will accelerate an economy that has been financially engineered to approach 0 % growth.Well we're at .7 with the energy tax essentially negated(I bot gas at Sam's for 1.04 last week - even in Tx that's cheap). I was transferred to Tx in 81 and marveled at a gallon for .99 - 19 years later it's now .05 more - that's a deal. .7% GDP and the tax checks are at least now beginning - the discount retailers are seeing them show up and the consumer is spending - that is one thing I do believe in - Americans spend. Last but not least, one must know what one knows.Amat is going to announce earnings this Tuesday - It won't be pretty.The best we can hope for is that a level of maintenance can be achieved.Let's face it - there is no sweet spot to be found. What I find myself struggling with is the alarmist articles which hype the negative perspective. Let's take a look at the friday/weekend spin. Chip sales to droop 26 % to 168 billion this year from 226 billion in 2000.Now back in 1987/1988(or 97/98) 168 billion would've been a stud year.Couple that with the mergers/acquisitions that have occurred - it leaves fewer players sharing an (albeit reduced)longterm bigger pie. I believe Cary's longterm belief in semi's is what we all are about on this thread.Over the years I have often worried about all the 2 for 1 splits and Cohu @ 21 is really 42(or 84) - and that is a long drop down (if it occurred)However their sales peaked at 45 million back then not 300 million in 2000. These are valid concerns if the industry was in decline.My view of tomorrow has more wireless,more fiber,more powerful IC's in everything.So long term growth is an assumption,if you will grant me the capability. I believe these management's have for the most part "ALL BEEN THERE DONE THAT BEFORE". There is a reason these guys horde cash - it is to reinvest on existing lines and innovate/upgrade offerings which will lure a limited investment dollar from chip makers who only know one MANTRA : DO IT CHEAPER THAN ANYONE ELSE.These product improvements are accomplished in down cycle times.They are strategically more important than actual production and revenue generation. Key thing here is a track record of achieving innovation and an advantage over the competitors.Amat leads here. The next negative spin this weekend is : Oracle's earnings estimates are cut. These guys are now going to do the unthinkable - they'll cut expenses and save themselves into a profit.OH KNOW - They're gonna save themselves into a profit.Quick SELL -They're gonna save themselves into a profit.Now you and I perhaps have a little different concept of savings - I'm not real sure what it's like to have 16 billion in savings - but if business got bad, I'd darn sure want to hold onto at least part of the income from 16 billion.gg JUST WHAT WOULD THE GURU'S HAVE GREAT MANAGEMENT DO? Notice the silence.gggg James Morgan has been around the block once or twice.During times like now - you reinvent yourself - upgrade your offerings so they are the best. You don't make the market you respond to it.You train your people with speed to ensure your ready BEFORE the turn comes. He knows that when it turns, - "they all come to the party at once".By then you're ramping up for production of the new/better equipment.Your people are trained and ready to implement.The rule of performance is measured by market share growth and margin expansion. We are not in that wonderful production time now - nor will we be next quarter.I've done this dance once or twice now too. The price turn up in the stocks of these companies will occur 30-60 days before the real bottom of the sector's business.The investing public will not know that the bottom was put in until 4-6 months later.Afterall earnings are a lagging indicator of the business climate.These execs don't know when the upturn comes until it happens, and then in negative times like now - they second guess it as maybe luck or a fluke. We must anticipate the bottom.Waiting for confirmation will put you too late.This requires one to be persistent with past purchases - although many semi stock purchases made in Oct 2000 are up nicely. To extrapolate that IC chip sales will coincide with the stagnant growth of stock market indexes in past historical periods is uncorrelated fear mongering.To suggest that they will errode back to past levels of production is pushing the cyclical nature of this industry to maximum negative scenario. I personally will be buying well before that with the persistant knowledge that the long term growth of Integrated Circuits is an exponential growth cycle. The blowoff top of the stock market valuations on .coms did not parrallel the valuations of this sector's stocks.It did not create a secular blowoff that will never be seen again - in this sector.In fact the blow-off top left us with: AOL,Amazon.com,B2B companies,software companies - all of which represent wealth creation.They will make it thru the investment screening process much like Amat,Nvls,Cohu,and others have in their past. As mergers and acquisitions occur over the future,this industry sector will mature and the maintenance of a 168 billion dollar industry(in a bad year) will represent good business that will help management during downturns.No doubt the guru's who liked Amat at 110 will accuse management of saving themselves into a profit at the bottom of this cycle and the one that happens in 2004/5 also. HOLD WITH CONFIDENCE and BUY ON THE DIPS These great companies will come out after half time and recreate the new economy only better. PUT THAT ONE IN THE BANK ONE MORE THING FOR SURE - The bears think this is 1929-IT ISN'T. THIS IS 2001 - What 2001 IS - IS JUST THE BEGINNING OF THE DIGITIZATION OF THE GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL BASE - AND IT IS NOT GOING BACKWARDS TO WHERE TRAINS WILL DETERMINE VAST WEALTH. THE WINNER IS THE ONE WITH THE MOST SHARES AT THE LOWEST PRICE.CARY IF YOUR NUMBER IS RIGHT -YOU'RE GONNA HAVE MORE THAN ME - BUT WE'RE BOTH GOING TO BE OK. I for one like to have a little fear rattle my cage - Cary's dire visions are possible - I don't think they're probable.If they occur, I'm going to be there wishing I had fresh cash - and this is key: We'll all be holding stocks in great companies.Our collective purpose is not to argue over which scenario is correct but rather to acknowledge that purchases within the industries cycles can be timed.It is not my intent to be perfect - the middle 70 % of this industry's cycle ( even if it takes 4-5 years vs the 18-24 months of the past)is more than enough to make a poor man retire rich if applied over a lifetime of investing.Cary's scenario chases the goal a little harder than mine.I've got 65 employyes at my store and when one of them is having a hard time with life - they come to me on their schedule.They might quit on a day when Cohu drops $1.50 and I've got to make time regardless of the NAZ - don't like to but I have to. In either case we're fortunate to have the opportunity to buy these stock at current or even better prices. I think the dow is leading us up out of a triple bottom in what has been a tested and proven consolidation.Having said that, I always expect a final shakeout - especially before a breakout up. As you say " Time is on our side".There are an awful lot of shorts building up in a low volume environment. Either way it'll take some volatility to get out of this funk.My bet is a head fake down followed by a short squeeze - mostly in the NAZ. BWDIK I for one have read too many unlabeled off topics regarding personality critiques on Amat. Brian works his butt off to keep us all informed regarding industry events. Cary has taken the "I want to steal me some Amat approach".If he gets it -he'll be the man.If he waits too long - he'll be the chaser.As long as I'm not gettinng a margin call I'm a whole lot more comfortable holding with confidence in the long term vs chasing a stock going up - man I hate that feeling.That's just me. What is important is, we all prosper in general over the long time. Brian keep up the good work! Cary you have the right to check my usually optimistic thinking with a doom scenario.If nothing else it stops me in my tracks and forces a review. Both are good things and they add to the overall dynamic thread that AMAT has been and will continue to be. Sorry for the long post - I'm kickin this soap box under my computer now.hehehe Bob

To: michael97123 who wrote (50421)	8/12/2001 11:03:07 PM
From: Pink Minion	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Can the economy survive 1000 nasdaq? That alone would rock consumer spending and a renewal of corporate spending. Severe recession would occur on top of what we have now. Do you really think it's healthy for an economy to depend on the market? The market should depend/react to the economy not the other way around. Your description of the economy reminds me of a drug addict. The economy might go through some rough times and withdraws as it tries to become "market-free", but it will be healthier in the long run.