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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DebtBomb who wrote (10481)	8/12/2001 12:46:21 PM
From: keithcray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 208838

AMAT's had two earnings previews within the last week---> How much worse can the actual report be than this?? "No recovery until 2nd Half of 2002" "Recovery not within limits of visibility" 10-Aug-01 13:02 ET AMAT Earnings Preview (OPENX) : Banc of America Sec. previews Applied Materials (AMAT -0.32) report on Tuesday; expects company to make firm's estimates of $1.2 bln and $0.02, with AMAT trimming numbers for Q4 and FY02... firm does not see recovery until 2H02... thinks AMAT still evaluating a major lay-off but has pushed decision into Sept-Oct. 07-Aug-01 09:22 ET Applied Materials (AMAT) 48.73: -- Update -- DB Alex. Brown says fundamentals weakened more than expected, and aggressive pull-in at end of quarter makes low end guidance likely; sees significant uncertainty in Q4 and beyond, and says recovery not within limits of visibility; advocates caution.

To: DebtBomb who wrote (10481)	8/12/2001 1:23:07 PM
From: Frederick Langford	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 208838

Two different comments from two different houses CIENA Corp (CIEN) 30.88 unch: DB Alex. Brown previews next Thursday's earnings report... Expects CIEN to beat estimates on the top and bottom lines, with company guidance of 95%-105% top line growth for FY01 remaining intact and management blessing Q4 consensus... Anticipates management backing off earlier FY02 guidance of top line growth of 45%-65%, to adjust to macro-environment CIENA Corp (CIEN) 30.02 -0.86: Pacific Crest expects Ciena to meet its estimates of $457.3 mln and $0.17 when results are reported next Thursday, but thinks sluggish conditions and steep price discounts will impact CIEN going forward... firm lowered numbers for FY01 ($0.74 from $0.75) and FY0 ($0.85 from $1.09)... strong name but lacks visibility It seems it's impossible to listen to the analysts, as they must not know too much. If one listens to CIEN CEO, who in the last analyst meeting said they did have visibility,Alex Brown is probably more accurate. Time will tell. Fred