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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: semi_infinite who wrote (21214)8/12/2001 12:45:30 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 24042
 
Yes, I summarized an article by Tom Astle.

A key assumption is that optical system revenues are growing at a 15% rate. Do you buy this?

Another is that components are 15% of sytems and the percentage is rising 1.5 - 3% per year. What is your take on this?

Do you accept their estimate of a $4Billion inventory overhang?

How would you model obsolescence? What percentage of components are active? Passive? How many months would you give to each?

Do you accept the market share forecast for JDSU?

Thanks!



To: semi_infinite who wrote (21214)8/12/2001 4:06:51 PM
From: robert b furman  Respond to of 24042
 
Hi Ray and Cary,

photonicfiber.com

2.5 and 10 gigb/sec modulators may also have a 30 day shelf life.

Kvhi's active fiber modulators will be available at a fraction of the cost of planar chips and are said to be capable of up to 100 gig/sec.

Full disclosure:I have been a long holder of KVHI for 4 years now - point is technology forces one to not carry much in inventory as it really can become worthless at a fast rate.

Bob


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