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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL who wrote (5005)	8/13/2001 1:51:30 PM
From: Robohogs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10280

I don't disagree with $125 mm+ for the year (in fact I believe Sepr wants to come in above expectations). 3rd Q should be down q over q and market share should also fall a little given the seasonal segment Sepr sales into. late 3Q and 4Q should be good. I also think it is a bit early to focus on earnings. If I had to guess absolute best case, I would say the following things could happen (parenthesis indicate my expected case): 1. Xopenex $25 million above plan for rest of year (done) 2. Royalties $20 million above plan for rest of year (risk) 3. R&D $25 million under plan for rest of year (we get half due to productivity) Net-net, this would work out to just under $1 for rest of year and would beat plan by 1/2. If that happened, then earnings do matter. I just don't think all three will happen (I actually do but don't want to count on it). I mean can you imagine, without all of the new drugs, if this guy starts annualizing permanently at $2 per share loss. The sky would be the limit. Sorry for the confusion. Just don't want others "counting" on this - it is the gravy. Jon

To: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL who wrote (5005)	8/13/2001 5:27:41 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10280

IJ, Xopenex predictions: Looking back at last year, Xopenex sales were as follows ($millions): Q1: 13.9 Q2: 9.6 Q3: 10.2 Q4: 23.5 and this year: Q1: 28.5 Q2: 33.0 So Q3 did marginally beat Q2 last year, but on a much lower base and in the context of a rapidly improving market share. It's hard to disentangle the seasonality from the market share gain, particularly as SEPR's seasonality seems to be more pronounced than the overall market and may even be greater than last year. So I'm being conservative and figuring they'll drop some in Q3, perhaps even when compared with Q1. However Q4 should be a record - maybe they'll even hit $50m for Q4. So I agree that $120m is easily doable this year, with a shot at $130m or better. Peter