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To: Les H who wrote (497)	8/13/2001 6:15:25 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29592

What to expect now. August 13, 2001. Ord. A sentiment study we watch that comes from "Lowrisk.com" came in today that tallied last week's results. The study showed 24% bulls and 59% bears and 17% neutral. Last week came in at 41% bulls and 27% bears and 32% neutral. There was 32% jump in bears. The last time this kind of a large jump in the bears appeared "according to Lowrisk.com" came on 4/16/00 with a 34% jump in bears and 3/21/01 with a 32% jump in bears. On both of those occasions, the market rallied strongly the next week. This supports our thinking that a strong rally is in front of us near term. We were looking for a re-test of the July 24 low on the September S&P that should not break that low. That re-test came in on Friday, hitting a low of 1171.50. The July 24 low came in at 1168.70. There is now a possibility of a re-test of Friday's low and the re-test should not break Friday's low of 1171.50. We also want to point out that Friday's test of the low was the third and three bottoms usually finish the basing process before the market reverse to up. We are still expecting a strong rally up to test the May 22 high. This rally may start this week. We are holding long the SPX for mutual funds purposes and Friday we add the OEX September 635 calls at 7 1/2. On July 24, a bullish "Spring" was drawn, generating a bullish signal on the NDX. On Friday August 10, another bullish "Spring" formed on the NDX. The NDX is now expected to test Friday's "Spring" low on lighter volume without trading below Friday's low. Once that happens than the NDX has completed the basing process and should head higher. The NDX has failed to get above a previous "Swing" high and is one the things we are waiting for the NDX to do before we become more bullish on this index. If the S&P goes up the NDX will be dragged with it however. We are long a ½ position on the QQQ at 42.60 and for the moment we are staying with that position and not adding to it yet until a light volume re-test of Friday's low is accomplished. No new trades on the NDX yet. Gold for short term is in a minor downtrend. This down trend may end around August 15-time frame, plus or minus 2 days. It is worth noting that the longer the sideways trend the stronger the rally will be when it begins. This condition is called, building "Cause". The Month chart on Gold remains bullish and we are holding long the XAU. marketweb.com