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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL who wrote (5009)	8/13/2001 6:34:26 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10280

IJ, 2Q01 Xopenex sales at $31.3 rather than $33.0 Not that it matters one way or the other, but SEPR reported "product sales" of $33.016m for 2Q01. I would assume this is all Xopenex. I didn't catch their comment on stocking. I'm not sure why there would be stocking anyhow, as Q3 is usually flat compared with Q2 and there's no price increase that I know of on the horizon. I suppose there is some stocking associated with their bigger market share, though. (And certainly the Q2 sales seemed to exceed that indicated by the script numbers). But that stocking trend might continue this quarter as the wholesalers and retailers stock up for the fourth quarter seasonal rise. And by the way, it is interesting to note that if you were to capitalize R&D, SEPR was about $10m dollars in the black last quarter. I firmly believe this is the appropriate way to value a solid biotech like SEPR where the R&D is clearly contributing value rather than being wasted. Peter

To: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL who wrote (5009)	8/13/2001 11:25:09 PM
From: rkrw	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10280

I found it interesting to look at sepr's presentation and the various graphs of xopenex sales. Slide 5 on the Q2 cc shows a graph of market share and total scrips over the past 2 years. www.sepracor.com ; investors; multimedia Just eyeballing their scrip/mkt share chart, it appears that real sales in the q2 were well below q1, as each of April, May and June appear to be below Jan, Feb and March. So the graph doesn't mesh with the up quarter unless stocking (as you pointed out) or their avg scrip $ is much higher. Slide 3 shows the nebule mkt up 13% YTD, measured by trx. Sepr is in the nice position of gaining mkt share in a growing mkt. My personal sales est: Q3: $22M Q4: $40M FY: $120M Strong 2002 growth is essentially assured. Barberich has stated their goal is to gain 4 mkt share pts each peak quarter, so they should be firmly above 20% by the end of Q1 02. By carrying mkt share gains forward in a growing mkt, sales growth is built in. I don't agree with some other posters about a big impact from the pediatric label. Medicare would be the biggie and is much more significant than a label expansion for a mkt they already sell significant scrips to. In response to Ed, using cash to buy back shares is quite a request in the face of a large burn rate, a huge sales and marketing ramp up next year, multiple phase III trials, the flexibility a strong cash position provides, a cloudy fda environment where delays are becoming the norm as well as possible inlicensing or jv opportunities.