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To: ms.smartest.person who wrote (1827)	8/13/2001 10:37:16 PM
From: ms.smartest.person	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2248

Telecoms revenue growth expected to plummet to historic low this year REUTERS Revenue growth in Australia's telecommunications sector will slow to a historically low 3 per cent this year before returning to healthy levels in 2005, according to an industry analyst. Independent Australian telecoms analyst Paul Budde said revenues for the telecoms market would grow only 3 per cent to A$36.9 billion (about HK$147.6 billion) this year. "I don't think we have ever had the low level of revenue growth as we have had in Australia in 2001," Mr Budde said. He blamed dwindling competition and the failure of major players to diversify from traditional voice services for the slowdown. However, Mr Budde said demand for broadband services when the first players launched third-generation services in four years would create a resurgence in growth. "It will be more towards 2005 that we start seeing real spectacular growth," he said. "There will be an enormous pent-up demand in broadband." He predicted the market would recover to 8 per cent revenue growth next year and accelerate with "spectacular growth" to create a A$90 billion market by 2010. Last year, the market grew 13.6 per cent to A$35.82 billion. Mr Budde's report criticised Telstra, which it said had a 75 per cent share of the total Australian market, for failing to capitalise on new markets. The report also said concerns remained about its Asian joint venture. It said No 2 Cable & Wireless Optus this year was the leader in competition but faced a "mammoth task" in blending two cultures with Singapore Telecommunications' takeover. Major Australian telecoms with revenues of A$100 million per annum or more have shrunk to six this year from 11 in 1999. Mr Budde predicted only three would survive next year. The report also said mobile phone revenues would shrink to negative growth next year. biz.scmp.com