To: active22 who wrote (116907 ) 8/14/2001 11:21:19 AM From: clochard Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258 Tuesday August 14, 11:12 am Eastern Time IMF: U.S. Current Account Unsustainable By
Anna
Willard WASHINGTON
(Reuters)
-
The
U.S.
current
account
is
unsustainable
and
could
mean
the
dollar
is
at
risk
from
a
sharp depreciation,
the
International
Monetary
Fund
said
in
a
report
released
on
Tuesday. In
its
latest
annual
assessment
of
the
U.S.
economy,
the
IMF
failed
to
reach
a
conclusion
about
the
future direction
of
the
world's
largest
economy,
saying
that
the
outlook
was
uncertain
and
depended
on
a
number
of factors. ``Directors
indicated
that
the
size
of
the
U.S.
current
account
deficit
did
not
appear
sustainable
in
the
longer
term and
that
it
raised
concerns
that
the
dollar
might
be
at
risk
for
a
sharp
depreciation,
particularly
if
productivity proved
disappointing,''
the
report
said. Productivity
and
confidence
in
the
consumer
and
business
sectors
are
the
keys
to
the
future
of
the
U.S.
economy, the
report
said
without
providing
any
specific
forecasts. Although
evidence
suggests
a
favorable
outlook
for
productivity,
the
IMF
said
a
less
optimistic
outcome
could pose
a
``significant
challenge''
for
U.S.
policy.
Productivity
at
U.S.
businesses
rebounded
sharply
in
the
second quarter,
posting
its
best
showing
in
a
year
with
a
rise
of
2.5
percent. Nevertheless,
with
uncertainty
ahead,
the
IMF
said
it
welcomed
the
flexible
policy
stance
the
authorities
have
taken,
in
particular,
the
Federal
Reserve's
aggressive easing
of
monetary
policy. The
Washington-based
lender
said
this
easing
might
need
to
continue
if
economic
data
remained
weak,
with
tame
inflation
providing
room
for
the
Fed
to
do
so. ``Most
directors
expected
that
inflationary
pressures
would
remain
generally
quiescent,
and
therefore
should
provide
the
room
for
monetary
policy
to
support economic
activity
in
the
event
of
persistent
weakness,''
the
report
said. However,
some
directors
warned
that
the
authorities
should
remain
vigilant
in
monitoring
inflation
prospects. The
IMF
also
expressed
concern
about
the
rise
in
household
and
corporate
debt
levels
and
the
decline
in
personal
savings,
with
any
further
slowdown
likely
to
have a
knock-on
effect
on
household
and
business
balance
sheets. TAX
CUT
TO
COST
THAN
EXPECTED As
far
as
fiscal
policy
is
concerned,
the
report
said
a
U.S.
tax
cut
implemented
this
year
was
``timely
and
appropriate''
and
would
help
insure
against
a
sharper economic
slowdown.
But
it
cautioned
that
the
cost
of
the
tax
cut
was
likely
to
be
larger
than
forecast. ``Directors
cautioned
that
the
total
cost
of
the
tax
cut
was
likely
to
be
higher
than
current
estimates
suggest
unless
offsetting
actions
are
taken,
largely
owing
to
the likelihood
that
tax
measures
would
not
expire
as
scheduled,''
it
said. Expenditure
slippage
poses
a
``significant
risk'',
the
IMF
warned,
and
so
recommended
that
spending
and
tax
policy
remain
flexible
over
the
medium
term. But
over
the
longer
term,
setting
aside
sufficient
resources
to
put
Social
Security
and
Medicare
``on
a
financially
sound
footing''
should
be
a
priority. Despite
deterioration
in
loan
quality
at
some
banks
in
2000
and
the
first
half
of
2001,
the
banking
sector
remains
healthy.
Nevertheless,
the
IMF
advised
the
United States
to
participate
in
one
of
the
fund's
Financial
Sector
Assessment
Programs
which
examine
risks
in
the
financial
system. The
fund
urged
the
United
States
to
continue
to
push
for
further
liberalization
of
international
trade,
and
to
resist
pressures
to
continue
supplemental
agricultural subsistence. Finally,
the
IMF
urged
the
world's
No.
1
economy
to
increase
its
level
of
official
development
assistance
to
bring
it
in
line
with
the
UN
target
of
0.7
percent. (Washington
newsroom
1
202
898
8309,
Fax
1
202
898
8383)