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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: majaman1978 who wrote (81397)	8/14/2001 11:49:18 PM
From: Timetobuy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

After XP is released and the DOJ case is settled, investors will have to focus on valuation. I agree with your view of XP. There are plenty of other things companies and consumers NEED to spend money on and a new OS and computers will be low on their wish list. The XBox could make a bigger impact, but at a p/s of nearly double what other quality software companies are now sporting and a pe high considering the growth rate of msft, I seriously doubt it can rally much into year end. In fact, it could see the low 50's and possibly even lower. I expect that msft will either trade in a range with 64 holding or underperform other software companies into the end of 2002 from today's prices. Reason being: others have already been hit and the valuation of msft is much higher than the others. Upside is limited on msft, jmho.

To: majaman1978 who wrote (81397)	8/15/2001 12:01:06 AM
From: t2	Respond to of 99985

if real estate prices collapse, individual spending will cease since much of this spending came from tapping additional equity on property which many have borrowed from during the past 10 years. I am afraid this could become a major issue here going forward. That is certainly a risk. It is another reason to not get very enthusiastic about the market in the near term. Some more economic weakness and we could start seeing concerns raised about real estate and that could become a self fullfilling prophecy. I don't think your scenario will come true but it is a risk that may not be priced into the market. Slightly positive news or bullish analyst comments can't move the stocks anymore. This is something that concerns me. It sure does not seem that the train is about to leave the station. One has to wonder how the Nasdaq will react to more bad news from a large cap tech name. In the meantime, I am just looking for trading opportunities--my preference is to trade on the long side. We could get a pop ahead of Greenspan as traders may be interested in covering shorts; short interest being at record levels plays into that scenario. BTW---small to midcap oil/gas stocks look like safe "investments" near term--API data has been bullish lately. Industries with M and A possibilities is also the way to play it as the market itself is not going anywhere. There was a hostile takeover bid in the wireless carrier business afterhours. Techs may be good for daytrading. Gold looks like a good hedge. JMHO.