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Strategies & Market Trends : gem-x's incredibly accurate Elliott Wave forecasts. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (478)	8/15/2001 10:40:23 AM
From: eichler	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2290

Mish, Well, truthfully, perhaps I am a bit lame when it comes to correctly identifying exactly what a chart pattern is. Back on the MDD thread, I'd say...hey, there's a wedge and LG would correct me and say: no, that's a triangle <gg>.....or I'd say, hey, there's a triangle and LG would come back and say: no, that's a wedge...GGG Anyway, there are patterns within the patterns. Many have even commented that there is a falling wedge on the daily which has a bullish implication. home.earthlink.net As far as the chart you linked, what jumps out at me more that the supposed triangle is that stochastics are oversold and popping up with a buy signal. Also, price seems to be nearer to the lower rail of the BB. From a common sense point of view, I have to ask: Does it seem more likely for price to rise from oversold and near the lower BB rail, or to fall? Sure, nothing is ever foolproof, nothing is guaranteed. But I would be much more comfortable predicting downwards resolution of that pattern, whatever the heck it is, if the indicators were aligning to support the anticipated conclusion. Just doesn't seem reasonable to predict a break downwards when the technical indicators are just beginning to bounce out of oversold. Also, don't underestimate the power of the propaganda machine. WS is heavily pumping the long side right now (advertising, upgrades) and which way is the Fed pushing right now? Maybe they are only "pushing with a string", but it is not to be discounted. From watching NBR last night, I see now where I-Mann was seeing the positive aspect of the recently released economic news. Consumers have not put locks on their wallets yet, there is an absence of horrible news to tank the market right now, IMO. So, perhaps a gloomy outcome as suggested in that post, but I think more likely later than sooner. In either case, using logical position entries (supports) and using stops to protect profits seems to me the best way to play the charts. Most traders I think sit in stunned stupor as price sits at support, and only jump in when they perceive price has moved far enough away from the "danger point" which by then much of the available profit is already gone. Anyway, I see at this time we are currently between the 50% and 62% retrace of the wave up from 8/10-14. The 62% level looks to be @ 1947. Stochastics on the 60 min and daily are more oversold than overbought. home.earthlink.net If we fail there and reattack the recent low, time for heightened caution and protective measures! Best of luck as always! Regards, Eichler