To: wgh613 who wrote (2070 ) 8/15/2001 2:43:06 PM From: Nadine Carroll Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 2477 Manny, BEAS is a great company, no doubt about it, but its stock is still richly valued. Prudential has cut its target to $23. Personally, I have thought for a year that $12 would be more in the range for fair value. Nothing in the current climate is making me revise that figure upwards. **************************************** Wednesday August 15, 2:26 pm Eastern Time BEA hits new year low after cutting outlook NEW YORK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Shares of BEA Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:BEAS - news) on Wednesday tumbled more than 4 percent after the company became one of the last software makers to lower its outlook for the year. In mid-afternoon trading, the share price of BEA fell 84 cents, or 4.57 percent, to $17.75. The shares recovered from an early bottom of $17.40, the lowest price since November 1999 and a new 52-week low. After the close of the market Tuesday, BEA said that second-quarter earnings, excluding one-time items, was a penny above the 9 cents a share expected by analysts, on the average, according to Thomson Financial/First Call. However, to make that number, the San Jose, California-based company was forced to pull from its backlogged revenue. Subsequently, the company also revised its guidance for the remainder of the year downward, owing to the slowdown in technology spending. ``While we recognize the company performed well in a tough environment, relative to other software companies, we believe the stock is fully valued at these levels,'' influential analyst Charles Phillips of Morgan Stanley wrote in a research report. He added that he maintained a neutral rating on the stock. Like Phillips, most analysts lowered their outlook for the remainder of the year and set targets for fiscal year 2003 in accordance with the company's own guidance. Pacific Growth analyst Mark Mulcahy, however, lowered his rating on BEA to a ``long-term buy'' from a buy and Prudential Securities analyst John McPeake cut his price target for the second time this month, saying they believed the stock is too high priced. McPeake cut his 12-month price target on the stock Wednesday night to $23 from $25 a share. McPeake first lowered his price target on BEA to $25 a share from $41 last week. BEA is the leader in applications servers, software that forms a foundation on which developers build their applications. While analysts noted that tough economic times may drive out smaller competitors, IBM, No. 2 in the area, still is ``a thorn in BEA's side.'' Still, according to a recently released study by Giga Information Group BEA's WebLogic, applications server revenue has been growing by 75 to 80 percent this year, while Giga estimates IBM's WebSphere is growing at 50 percent. Meanwhile, the market as a whole is growing by 60 percent, far from the 200 percent it grew in 2000. Additionally, Giga analyst Mike Gilpin said a recovery in infrastructure software spending is unlikely to appear until the first quarter of 2002. ``Indeed, even a first quarter of 2002 recovery is by no means a high probability,'' he wrote in the report.