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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chowder who wrote (3606)	8/15/2001 2:26:43 PM
From: Meridian	Respond to of 206326

Dabum, you make some excellent points, but your assumption that because demand WAS rotten that it will STAY rotten is all wrong. I too believe that we're in a recession and that the consumer will start to feel pain due to layoffs (I'm short housing). But with the same ferocity as price elasticity hit in a $7-$10/mcf environment, we'll see it hit in a $3.00/mcf environment. Price elasticity that will surprise people. It is that demand which will come back by virtue of the low price that will surprise on the upside. The Street, in its infinite wisdom, will try to explain it, but it can't. There is a lot of pent up demand, be it from chemicals, fertilizer plants, copper plants, glass plants, and electricity companies that have run out of coal emmission credits. It is that demand which is the wildcard. Price elasticity worked once in this market at $10/mcf ... I'm simply betting that the same forces will work again, but in reverse.