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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (14965)	8/15/2001 4:37:05 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 42834

I don't think there is enough fear yet. I asked a few tech investors about their expectations for Nasdaq by end 2002, and the lowest was 2800. The average was about 3200. Up 60% from here in a year and a half? For what reason?

To: Kirk © who wrote (14965)	8/15/2001 6:49:28 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

>>skeeter is a resident bear and tends to predict the worst for everyone and thinks everyone is an idiot and deserves to lose money. Many are like that and they just tend to lean towards the bear side. Gives good balance to the Joe Battapaglia's of the World! :)<< kirk, you are over generalizing here. by a LOT. i do think folks who pay way too much for companies relative to their future fundamentals compared to t-bill rates of return are foolish - no doubt. i also think folks who buy companies they don't understand, and don't care to understand, in the hopes that some greater fool comes along is a bit slow. i also think the folks that believe in one decision riches (buy at any price and hold to riches) are quite naive. same with the buy good companies regardless of price crowd. does this cover everyone? ok, a great deal of folks! ;-) however, your assumption that i'm always bearish is flat out wrong. i've been net long for the past 4+ years. my ira (where i have most of my dough) was almost 100% net long from 1998 to feb 2000. yes, i was trashing the insanity in the qcoms and mus and rmbs' and most all the other stocks folks fell in love with. i still owned a number of biotechs and other small companies that were selling for fire sale prices, imho. there is no contradiction there. the difference is valuation. i will always hate bloated pigs and i will always love a deal - sometimes they are the same company in different time periods. i was bullish on biotech and bearish on tech in 1998 and 1999. >>I just bought another small cap today selling below book value and price/sales of 1.5. IT is spending about 1/3 or revenue on R&D for a very hot area so I don't mind that the cash flow is not the best since it has zero debt. I think if you start to look for bargains in areas you understand, or think you understand (watching my hubris level here...), then you can do well whenever the market recovers and have decent downside protection in the long term (short term, these bargains can get even cheaper...)<< btw, i'm still long 4 small caps and have been for the last 3+ years (i sold my big winners when the nut cases took some of my bios through the roof in late 99 and early 00 and the proceeds are stil in cash). if you do your stock picking correctly, you can do a good job protecting yourself from down turns and profiting when the recovery comes. but, alas, by that time folks will be saying that i'm bullish about everything b/c valuation changes everything. i am no Joe Battapaglia type. kirk, that is insulting. the guy doesn't even respect himself.