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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (40293)	8/15/2001 4:54:29 PM
From: Timetobuy	Respond to of 65232

It's going to be a stock picker's market. Those who can't pick a stock or fail to look at valuations will only continue to lose money. Indeed there are many who have seen their retirement dreams and college funds dwindle. There were too many people in the market thinking that it couldn't end. Those who lost a lot will probably fall into two categories: those who never buy another stock again and those who desperately try to recover their losses and get out. But those who have a longer term view and can buy with valuations in mind and figure out which companies hold the advantage will probably be accumulating stocks during this time. 1929? The charts of nasdaq and 1929 are similar. The economy must improve to have stocks rise. If this economy follows 1987 then we could indeed have much to worry over. In that case the market peaked in 1987 and housing then took off peaking less than 2 years later. Interest rates were being lowered at that time as they are now. The real recession did not hit until after housing peaked and wasn't over until 5 YEARS after the actual peak in the stock market. If we follow that (and this time it's different. Valuations are MUCH higher than they were in 1987 and this time we have an inventory problem which may be over soon, but still doesn't mean that demand will rise creating an "L" shaped economy with likely more lay offs to come), then the economy will continue to go down from here and not rise until 2005 just when the first of the boomers will be able to take money out of 401K's without penalty. I expect that it could take as long to get back to the highs for many of these stocks as it took in 1929, but we could just trade in a range for a long time; like years. During that time though, there are stocks that will rise and the market will move higher before the actual economy bottoms out. Glad I'm young and can whether a market in that condition if it should occur. People like my mom who are now 50 will be the ones who have to work longer than they thought to make up for the money they lost last year.