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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Ounce who wrote (54194)	8/16/2001 10:47:01 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 94695

Hi Bill, Yea poor choice of word in using crash - really meant to talk about retest of Aprils lows. Although if you own any fiber optic stocks crash might be the better choice. Looks to me like all the sacred sectors have been rotating their turn to put in lows: semi's - october 00 software - april 01 fiber optics-august 01

To: Bill Ounce who wrote (54194)	8/30/2001 12:17:34 PM
From: Bill Ounce	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Not at the bottom yet (MSNBC econonomic supermodel article) This is an interesting article. You may wish to read it. I only clipped out a few sections in the spirit of "fair use", since they directly relate to the discussion on this thread. moneycentral.msn.com SuperModels The forecast calls for more pain The Economic Cycle Research Institute takes the guesswork out of determining which ways the economic winds are blowing. [...] 'Where's the recovery?' Right now, Achuthan says the big question on clients? lips is: ?Where?s the recovery?? And he answers that he can?t say with certainty where it is right now, but he can say it?s not imminent - meaning in the current quarter. ?I wouldn?t say we?ve bottomed yet, either,? he said in an interview last week. [...] On Friday, data showed new orders for durable goods fell to a three-year low in July and June numbers were revised downward. The pullback in business spending is worsening, in other words, ensuring that the recovery is not imminent. [...] Between now and a real recovery, Achuthan foresees continued pain and dislocation: As the recession becomes more and more apparent, joblessness will spread from industry to industry and the consumer should finally falter --resulting in lower retail, home and car sales and a potentially hairy third and possibly fourth quarter for business. (Optimists may correctly note that the consumer has continued to spend right through several recessions, albeit at a slower rate.) [...] To watch ECRI?s forecasts unfold, you can either plunk down $7,000 for a subscription to its monthly service or watch the front of its free Web site, businesscycle.com, both for changes in its weekly leading indicator index and changes in the index?s growth rate. Achuthan says you want to see it rise in a pronounced, persistent and pervasive manner until it moves well above 0, and preferably above +4%. The index can ultimately go to +20% and higher as the recovery progresses. [...]