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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (7260)	8/16/2001 12:48:43 PM
From: tradermike_1999	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

A couple of times a month I buy a copy of Investor's Business Daily and read through it. Today I got a copy at lunch time and they had a sobering article in there. I like IBD. It is one of the few good sources of investment information out there. IBD was founded by William O'Neill who advocates a momentum based investment strategy that looks at a companies fundamentals and technicals. In March of 2000 IBD warned that the Nasdaq was topping out. I don't always agree with their analysis. After the market stopped falling in April O'Neill said that it had bottomed for sure and not to worry. Today they had an article that said that there are very few stocks that fit their buying criteria right now. Let me quote: "A healthy market yields a stready stream of great breakouts. Buoyed by many great technical and fundamental features, these stocks first set up in smooth cup-with handle bases. Then they blast past their pivot points on a surge in volume." "If few great stocks are forming solid bases, you have no reason to look for new buys right away." "We screened for stocks with EPS and RS Ratings of 80 or higher as of last week. Stocks on the list had to trade an average of 300,000 shares or more a day and have a share price of at least 10. Industry Group RS, Accumulation/Distribution, and Sales+Proft Margins+ROE ratings all had to B or better. No stock could lie more than 25% off its high." "A total of 36 stocks met those criteria....Only 11 of the 36 were still setting up in bases or within 5% of their pivots after breaking out. That's an alarmingly low number, given the roughly 10,000 stocks traded on the US exchanges." "If you're looking for a reason to sit tight, study the market, and stay in cash you've just found one." I believe they are right. At the moment shorts rule this market. Few stock groups or charts are in bullish formations. This will change though once we get into the 6th inning of this decline. Those people who take reckless bets now on technology stocks are fighting the tape and will get killed. This is not the time to buy stuff like JNPR or JDSU and try to be a hero. Do not double down on your stocks in the hopes that you can more easily make your money back. At the moment your primarily goal should be protecting what assets you have now. Not trying to get back what you may have had 2 years ago. For now any rallies that come are opportunities to get out. If you have stocks that are underperforming the Nasdaq you are holding time bombs.

To: elmatador who wrote (7260)	8/16/2001 2:31:24 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

Re fantasy - searched for the word and found the wrong one. I had imagination at the tip of my tongue - but did not get through. Re dark fiber bandwidth - ther installed fiber base must by now be able to let every single man and woman on the earth have their own video channel. How much more is needed to have our own digital avatars? Lateral imagination fighting DJ's 3Dimensionality. Re Siemens case history: what everyone of us got is two hands. If one or even both are used to cover your behind, then nothing gets done - actually nothing gets started even -. Lindschinger or Hagemmann - I noted the names.