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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Daveyk who wrote (8339)	8/16/2001 12:57:23 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 19219

Dave, Selling Pressures in Sept and Oct were not so well known before the democratization of the hollowed grounds of wall street and it's large money managers. Today we talk about it and read about and hear it on CNN, etc. The pros fade the public distributing there treasure and then taking it back. Now the big question remains is the public savvy enough to sell mutual fund holdings to avoid taxes before the pros flip portfolios after the Labor Day weekend. If not..., will the selling rotational pressures cause the public to sell their holdings. Next question..., what will the speculators do with any of this information in the futures pits....? My guess at this point is weak to rising markets into 2002, without any serious carnage. But that's just a guess...! I believe the pits will take it up and fade the public who fear a market sell-off..! The rise might be surprising...? Chip

To: Daveyk who wrote (8339)	8/16/2001 2:04:30 PM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

I love au contrare - some throwing in the towel for rest of 2001: Many market strategists give up on 2001 By Adam Shell, USA TODAY 8/16/2001 More Personal Finance Get the latest on 2001 investing, debit cards and more, on the Managing Your Money page. NEW YORK — Recovering from the busted stock market bubble is going to take a lot longer than most Wall Street experts thought. Many top strategists who once predicted a market recovery in 2001 are now saying the Standard & Poor's 500 index might not turn up for good until next year. They blame a slower-than-expected recovery in corporate profits and a weak economy that shows few signs of perking up anytime soon. Wednesday, the S&P 500 continued its descent, falling 9 points to 1178, leaving it down 11% for the year and 23% off its high. The popular benchmark's inability to mount a sustained rebound has had a sobering effect on top strategists: Outlook for S&P 500 in 2002 Top market strategists differ widely on how stocks will finish 2002 — assuming a recovery finally arrives. Firm Strategist 2002 target Gain from Wed. UBS Warburg Ed Kerschner 1835 56% CSFB Tom Galvin 1500 27% First Albany Hugh Johnson 1250 6% J.P. Morgan Douglas Cliggott 1200 2% Source: USA TODAY research Ed Kerschner, UBS Warburg's chief global strategist and one of Wall Street's biggest bulls, has basically written off this year and is already focusing on 2002. The firm's financial advisers are telling clients how they can take advantage of the big gains Kerschner expects next year. By his calculations, the S&P should be 56% above Wednesday's close at the end of 2002. J.P. Morgan strategist Douglas Cliggott says the S&P could still fall 10% more by year's end. He doesn't expect stocks to hit bottom until spring of 2002. Stocks won't start climbing until next summer or fall, he says. "There's no reason to close your eyes and jump in the market today," he says. Hugh Johnson of First Albany hasn't given up on 2001 but says stock market returns will be "uninspiring" for the next 5 years. Double-digit gains are history, he says. Instead, think single-digit, CD-like returns. His prediction: annual returns of 6.6% — and that includes a 1.3% dividend yield. But not every guru is so gloomy. "We are not in the camp that says nothing good is going to happen until next year," says Jeffrey Applegate at Lehman Bros. The market will rally and finish up for the year, he says. Tom Galvin, strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston, expects the S&P to rise 8% to 10% by year's end. Still, even that optimistic scenario would not be enough to keep the big-cap index from finishing down for the second consecutive year. The S&P last suffered back-to-back losses in 1973-74. There is wide disagreement on how the market will fare in 2002. Kerschner is the most optimistic. His year-end 2002 level for the S&P is 1835 — a 56% gain from Wednesday. He says stocks are attractively priced in the wake of the 18-month bear market. The rebound, he says, will be spurred by a profit recovery, tax cuts, lower interest rates and cheaper energy costs. Cliggott says stay defensive. His target is 1200 — 2% above Wednesday's close. He says stocks are still too richly priced. He's also worried that corporate profits could fall further than people think. "Investors will get a better buying opportunity next spring," he says. Best Regards, J.T.