18 Months IN and OUT: PALM: MARKETSHARE DOMINATION. The current price is a bargain period, all the way back to its 52 week high of $67, that almost 17x your money, for example a $4,000 investment today of 1,000 shares should get $63,000 profit (capital gain) when PALM hits it's high again, and it is not a question of IF but only WHEN. We are now at the 18th or 20th month, the bottom. Now we crawl out up the upside of 18 months out.
Last year already when I said this 2nd Greenspan induced recession would be 18 months in and 18 months out, everyone though I was as crazy as everyone probably still thinks I am now. However, finally the rest of Wallstreet is "getting it", that the $10 TRILLION DOLLARS of Liquidity that Greenspan destroyed in the world financial markets is not magically replaced overnight. This is 10x (TEN TIMES) the entire BUSH TAX CUT BUDGET, and as Larry Kudlow has pointed out many times amid the roaring deafening and RUDE interruptions during CNBC interviews, until we get OPEN CARRY, a Federal Reserve (FOMC) interest rate cut BELOW 2 YEAR TREASURY paper, your local bank will not be able to borrow from the Federal Reserve, buy these US Treasury issues to cover and make a small profit on the Fed loan, and use them for their required FDIC (Federal Reserve imposed) Cash Reserves On Hand (to prevent bank runs like in the 1920's) Reserve to Loan ratio, and thus be able to loan out more money, which with the multiplier effect, with commercial borrowers cheaping borrowing and putting the money back in the bank along with the people they pay putting it back into the bank, thus multiplying it, for the bank to re-loan those same dollars out again and again (about a 8 to 12 multiplier effect) thus creating or re-creating the lost liquidity that Greenspan destroyed, without this OPEN CARRY, there will be no re-created LIQUIDITY and thus a stagnation and inflationary destructive economy while deflationary on prices and earnings and capital, or productivity utilization as factories shut down and move permanently to Communist China taking the jobs and future broader supply and service industry around these manufacturers permanently with them. Postive Carry, lower FED interest rates, that we have had so far is not enough and the market and the earnings reflecting the economic recessionary slow down prove that, it must be totally to OPEN CARRY before the Fed rate cuts will have any effect. The alternative is to go to zero rate like Japan and kiss our financial markets goodbye forever (incidentally Communist Chinese Party members now control or hold a controlling interest in all the Hong Kong financial houses). So what will Greenspan do? What he should do is go to OPEN CARRY or ZERO RATE and then admit he single handedly destroyed an economy that was not borken, only delaying the future by 5 years, and then resign or be impeached. In my opinion, Greenspan is a FINANCIAL WAR CRIMINAL. If he fails to do so, expect OPEC to protect their own interests, which may destroy the US Economy....unless the US Treasury Department gets some courage and does day to day trench warfare with Greenspan's Federal Reserve through Treasury issues. O'Neill has not done so yet, so he is s far as guilty as Greenspan, and maybe more so than Larry Sommers, at least Rubin had the HONOR AND INTEGRITY to quit and not play any part of this 2nd Greenspan failed monetary policy, he knew and didn't tell, but at least he quit, and CitiBank has been a lucky place since, but the US and Wallstreet has not. 18 months in and 18 months out. As you point out, PALM is testing its lows again, either way you cut it, PALM has market domination, and with the BEOS purchase, the PALM OS will be bullet proof, and that means future MARKET DOMINATION. It will surpass its previous highs. So I buy. All the impatient daytraders will now chime in, but at some point well short of $67 I will stop buying and just hold, and then when we hit $67 I will reassess the World we will be living in then, since at internet speed, 18 months from now, or from here out to 6 months when PALM will be well on the way to full recovery, it will be a very different world. The desktop computer is 20 years old, handhelds are very new, most companies less than 5 years old, so they are reshaping the world very fast now. Everyone would have bought MSFT 15 years ago, and so I buy PALM, and NTAP and other future GROWTH companies.
I am,
Truly your$,
-Crystal Ball |
