Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Petrokazakhstan Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cooliemon who wrote (1738)	8/22/2001 3:31:48 PM
From: forecaster	Respond to of 2357

Coolie: Acquisitions - Big and Small. I am assuming that the pending acquisitions will be in the South Turgai Basin, judging by HHLA statement that the properties are "adjacent to our fields". From the published exploration plans, the regional setting includes two big acquisition prospects and seven smaller ones: BIG TWO: 1. Turgai Petroleum JV - the other 50%. 2. Kazgermunai JV - again, the other half that we don't own already. SMALLER SEVEN: 1. Kenlyk 2. Doshan 3. Ashisai 4. Konys 5. Bektas 6. Blinovskoye 7. Arysskoe At least one of the two acquisitions will likely be from the above lists, since HHLA stated that one contained a proven oil discovery. I would give a good chance to Kenlyk, due to its geographical location smack between Aryskum and Kyzylkiya. The other interesting property seems to be Blinovskoye, because HHLA's slide #17 on Exploration Potential - land acreage indicates that an application for an additional exploration license is in progress for extra acreage immediately attached and south of Blinovskoye. Does the field belong to Al Tadzhir? Outside of the South Turgai Basin, there is still the possible acquisition or merger with Nelson Resources, but I think the pending ones are closer to home. Forecaster

To: cooliemon who wrote (1738)	9/21/2001 9:27:55 AM
From: forecaster	Respond to of 2357

Coolie: New economics (CPC). 1. Brent crude oil is up in London today, back over US$26. futuresource.com 2. Brent at US$26 roughly corresponds to its quality placing in the OPEC basket of seven crude prices, managed to average between US$22-28. 3. When Brent averaged US$26, HHLF earned US$100 million in the first half of 2001. This included some unusual items like US$6 million in potential bid costs and a few additional housecleaning items. 4. Q3 will be a transitory quarter, seeing a gradual impact of falling transportation costs due to the CPC startup and from Aug.3, accrual of interest on our dividends. 5. The impact of the CPC acquisition may partially affect Q4, depending on the closing, but certainly should be fully felt in 2002. 6. In 2002, I estimate that earnings will be further boosted by a sizeable increase in production and even lower transportation costs due to the new pipeline, connecting HHLA oilfields to the railroad. In the second half of 2002, export transportation costs could be reduced from the current US$12.50 to US$6.25/barrel. 7. Rough calculation: Assuming status quo in oil prices, earnings base is about US$200 million or US$2.50/share. Increased production (150,000 barrels): US$100 million or US$1.25/share. Other before tax items: CPC savings on 64,000 bopd exported: US$90 million. HHLA pipeline savings on 100,000 bopd exported ( July-December): US$40 million. Interest on Senior notes: - US$25 million. ------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL BEFORE TAX ITEMS: US$105 million. TAX : - US$35 million ------------------------------------------------------ ABOVE ITEMS AFTER TAX: US$70 million. PROJECTED TOTAL 2002 EARNINGS: US$ 370 million, or US$4.60/basic share. Beware of "Eve's partner", he used to be a car salesman in Fargo, North Dakota. Forecaster