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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (50705)	8/16/2001 3:09:12 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

I'll say it, if you won't. AMAT LEAPs are a bad idea, at these prices. I'm currently buying EMC and NTAP LEAPs, will buy LEAPs in TXN (stock at 30 and lower), also will consider them in CSCO, if/when it retests previous lows. I will not buy AMAT LEAPs, unless the stock gets to 30. It would also be nice if the volatility came down, so the premiums would get more reasonable.

To: Math Junkie who wrote (50705)	8/16/2001 3:26:08 PM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Respond to of 70976

If PSRs PEs and other Fundamental Guides become more popular, that is more than 50% of all Investors adhere to them --- then AMAT would probably trade a little above the Book Value of 8 or something; and then when the company reports double the earnings of the past year --- the stock would just trade in the 10s and 20s to keep in line with Fundamentals. My friends who have profited handsomely from AMAT, INTC and other stocks do not even know about PEs. They just believe that any stock that has proven to double their money every now and then, say 2 to 3 years will always be good stocks to own. And these Guys probably best represent the Investing Public in Hi-Techs than those who strictly uses PEs. Anything could happen but I'm inclined to believe, there will always be Bubbles in Hi-Tech stocks (in other stocks it might follow PSRs and PEs closely). The P in P/E will always dominate the E during Bull Markets; and the E will have priority over the P during Bear Markets. This time around may not be as spectacular as in the Bull market of 1997 and 2000 because of Investor's Bubble concerns, but I would be happy if AMAT gets just above 115 next year --- so the habit of breaking the All Time highs before the end of each Bull Market will continue. As for the LEAPs, they can be traded at will anytime like stocks. They can be replaced to extend the life of the Investment --- using my Drop/Catch Guide to time the Buys and Sells respectively. Just as I said before, I convert Leaps into shorter term Options whenever I see AMAT rising for the next several months. Any price of AMAT above the trading range of 60 to 40 or below is Good enough for me this time. Any further advance can wait. We've been in a Bear in the Over-All Market for more than a year now. History says Bull Markets spend longer times to reach their highest than Bear Markets to reach their lowest.