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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sandeep who wrote (15444)	8/16/2001 3:56:43 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Manufacturing and technology are in their worst recessions in 20-30 years - that's half the Dow right there. The difference is the Dow valuations are better, and Dow stocks are perceived as a safe haven. They're always the last to fall. But you hit the real question on the head - does the recession spread beyond manufacturing and technology? I think the economy's inability to respond to rate cuts and untold billions in liquidity argues for, at a minimum, a long period of stagnation. And we've never had the kind of recession we've had in manufacturing without a broader recession. If you get IBD, check out the chart of year-over-year retail sales growth on the front page of yesterday's paper. Sure is hard to argue that the consumer is "holding up" when you see that chart. I don't think flat or very slow growth is priced into the SPX at a PE that's not all that far from March 2000 levels. Fuhgeddabout recession. JMHO. And I'm long MRK, by the way. An entirely different animal.