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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: excardog who wrote (3657)	8/16/2001 5:09:01 PM
From: Terry D	Respond to of 206327

Another opinion - FWIW National Oilwell( NOI $18.79 ) - Buy Price Target: $50.00 A Short, Shallow Downturn Could Boost Sales MarketCap: $1.5 Billion Index: NYSE Composite, Russell 1000 Robin Shoemaker - Oil Service and Equipment We see lots of evidence that drilling contractors are using idle rig time to repair and upgrade rig equipment. If drilling contractors conclude that the current slump will be short and shallow, rig investments should continue. NOI's share price has fallen by 50% on unfounded fears that the rig investment cycle is over. We see no slowdown in sales of rig components; NOI's backlog of drilling equipment orders continues to build. Investors may be misjudging the impact of a short, shallow downturn on NOI's rig equipment business. We think investors may be surprised by the strength and the upward momentum of NOI’s business over the next few quarters. The severe sell-off in NOI shares seems to proclaim “It’s 1998 all over again!” WE think that this is not the case. The deceleration in gas drilling in mid-2001 is not severe and it may be short-lived. The long-term secular theme (the aging rig fleet and what we must do about it) is still intact. The short-term drop in rig demand actually may lift NOI’s sales. This seems to be happening today. We believe, therefore, that NOI is a Buy. Our 12-mo. price target is $50 per share. Our conservative earnings estimates are $1.35 in 2001 and $1.80 in 2002. We continue to believe that NOI’s peak earnings power in the current drilling cycle is $3.50-$4.00 per share. Bear Stearns: 12/01E $1.35; Q3 $0.36 12/02E $1.80 Consensus: 12/01E $1.34; Q3 $0.36 12/02E $1.78 Consensus Rating: 1.4 (Last Updated 8/15)