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To: GraceZ who wrote (7285)	8/16/2001 10:51:13 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hi Grace, <<... interest of US multinationals to have a lower dollar ... remember back when the Euro was free falling ... earnings warnings prefaced with due to falling foreign currencies ... the weakness in the Euro, etc..... >> What I remember is when the USD was weakening quite a while ago, the Cokes and Mercks got bid up, and when the USD was strengthening, the Cokes and Mercks stayed up, especially relative to profit and growth. I remember the days when good news was good news, no news was better news, and bad news was the best news of all. I remember because we are still in those days. Dusk now, different animals roam the jungle, energized by drums making unfamiliar sounds, motivated by hunger. <<But money doesn't care about quality of life but return on investment, after tax return on investment>> Wait, that is my line! Now, where do you suppose the relative value is at now and immediate future, and how has this view changed from the reality of the immediate past? Right now I think the return on speculation, net of all mandated friction, is to stay wish cash, bet against the USD, and I have no view on the long term, other than that it will mirror the past, but with reflective distortion. Every asset gets its turn in the sun, always. Chugs, Jay

To: GraceZ who wrote (7285)	8/16/2001 11:02:54 PM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

US multinationals!!! Who gives a S, 15% of GDP is manufacturing! Screw them, the bigger concern is the inflation it will create for this 66% GDP consumer society. GET REAL! YOU ARE LOST! West

To: GraceZ who wrote (7285)	8/17/2001 1:22:36 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

Getting some exchange rate "right" - whatever the opinion about "right" is - is fighting the symptoms. US$ exchange rate is much more of an effect than the cause (although prone to manipulation, which helps people like Soros make their living). It's pretty much something like the body temperature: while we may all agree that 0C (frozen over) and 100C body temperature (boiling) would sure indicate the patient is dead, 37´.2 Celsius does not tell us anything about whether the person in question is sick or sound. With zero deficit, historically high balance of payments and historically even higher private debt US economy needs a corrective move to a more sustainable state of affairs. One of the indicators, showing this shift is happening, is US$ exchange rate. dj

To: GraceZ who wrote (7285)	8/17/2001 2:26:54 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Wow. I had a similar thought- though not quite so clear as yours at the time. Even clipped the IMF alert- for possible posting. But instead let it slide. Some random thoughts- not requiring any reply or even consideration. Ramifications of large scale capital flows Daimler bought Chrysler FX: flow of funds weakened euro, increasing costs of imports to euro area Chrysler suffered large net loss, enterprise value shrunk Daimler Wealth lost to previous holders of Chrysler Loss of wealth hurt previous holders of Daimler, likely German interests Who got the benefit of the wealth transfer? Americans? For all we know, it could have been the Japanese... who see continued real wealth grow as a result of deflation and the existance of savings. Maybe the Japanese are truly smarter than we give them credit for. Maybe they are winning the competition for global wealth in a manner less than obvious. Through the slow accumulation of real wealth.