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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Prophet who wrote (77599)	8/17/2001 2:41:29 AM
From: Don Green	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

" Investors make the same kind of mistake with value stocks, seeking out deep-discount situations in hopes of a big score. It's a risky strategy because a lot of cheap stocks are cheap for good reason -- the companies may be in big trouble. Instead of disasters, value investors should look for moderately depressed stocks, with below-average P/Es -- maybe 10 to 16 nowadays -- and 8% to 10% annual earnings growth. Even modestly better results will help those stocks bounce back." money.com

To: The Prophet who wrote (77599)	8/17/2001 2:42:13 AM
From: NightOwl	Respond to of 93625

I'm sorry, but I have to ask. Do you reeeeeeeally believe this? Come on now. You're just trying to "trick" me aren't you. ...Or perhaps laying a little "Legend" bait? Hoping to have CB die laughing? 0\|0

To: The Prophet who wrote (77599)	8/17/2001 4:39:33 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi The Prophet; Re: "50% likelihood that RMBS obtains 20% or more market share in DRAM going forward." The reason you're using a 50% number is because this is an area in which you have no knowledge. So one thing seems just as likely as the other, and you therefore get 50%. And anyway, RDRAM now has more than 20% of the market, as measured by sales, rather than bits. The problem is that everyone knows it's temporary. [Samsung has (had) 20~25% of their production, by bits, in RDRAM. They're about 20% of the total DRAM market, and 50% of the RDRAM market. Therefore, the total market penetration, by bits, for RDRAM is about 22% * .20 / .50 = 8.8%. Since RDRAM is 4x the price of SDRAM, the overall sales percentage is probably above 25%.] In addition, your figure for a $30 billion memory market isn't going to happen in 2001 or 2002, and is very unlikely for 2003. (Want to bet?) -- Carl

To: The Prophet who wrote (77599)	8/17/2001 1:18:40 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 93625

>>50% likelihood that RMBS prevails on DDR claims and wins right to approx 2% of DRAM memory market. Assume $30 billion x .02 x .60 (taxes and expenses) /100 million shares x 20 (p/e) x .5 probability = share price value of legal of $36.<< re: 50% probability = $36/share. GIGO.

To: The Prophet who wrote (77599)	2/4/2002 3:50:35 AM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 93625

Hi The Prophet; I just came upon your post of August 17, 2001, where you said: The Prophet, August 17, 2001 ... Technology: 50% likelihood that RMBS obtains 20% or more market share in DRAM going forward. ... #reply-16223093 What's hilarious about this is that now Rambus isn't doing better than estimating that they might someday (i.e. 2005) get 12 or 13% of the market. See #reply-16956467 , #reply-16963837 , #reply-16986600 , or go directly to RDRAM.com to see the prediction: rdram.com BWAHAHHAHAHA!!! LOL!!! -- Carl