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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Ivan who wrote (237)	8/17/2001 8:20:33 AM
From: stomper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

But I think we are definetly closer to the bottom of the cycle here than at the top. What are you seeing that I am missing? I don't see even a hint of an economic bottom. I do notice many people stating the "closer to the bottom" wording, but I've got no visibility for a bottom, -g-. TIA. -dave

To: Mark Ivan who wrote (237)	8/17/2001 8:30:41 AM
From: Jason W	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Mark, Both yours and Tom's were fine posts. Regarding the bottom of the cycle you mentioned...Are you talking about a real estate cycle, stock market cycle, or economic cycle in general. I would tend agree with Tom that real estate will bottom AFTER the stock market, meaning the stock market will be and is the accelerant for a real estate "recession", (combined with debt). I also believe the recent re-financing boom was a "last Hurrah" for debt laden Americans. It was the final place to pull cash to spend, after the stock market sucked everyone's money away from them. When real estate prices retreat, things will get ugly. NOw, certain areas, mainly the northeast may suffer less than less populated areas, but I also believe that now is a poor time to purchase real estate. Perhaps the worst time in the last 20 or so years. The price appreciations over the last 5 years or so are far beyond the norm, which amazingly hasn't deterred many buyers. It makes me think of the Nasdaq, albeit to a lesser degree. I for one will play it safe, and wait a bit before considering another real estate purchase. Just my $0.02, and briefly at that, before I head to work. Regards, Jason