Hi Jdaasoc; Some more of my predictions regarding the ultimate price of RDRAM as compared to SDRAM:
Bilow, April 9, 2000
"Hi Dave B; I never, ever said that RDRAM would never, ever work. I never said that you would never see them in systems under $2000. So I can't answer for the people who said those things.
What I did say was that RDRAM would be plagued by high cost, (not necessarily high price, mind you), difficult manufacturing, reliability issues, and lack of price/performance. All of these things have come to pass.
My guess is that eventually the cost of RIMMs will stabilize at somewhere between 1.5 and 2 times the cost of DIMMs. This is in keeping with other industry estimates for the ratio. Right now RIMMs are way out of line, but I don't think that the ratio will stay that way forever." #reply-13382489
Bilow, May 5, 2000
"Not even a hint in the trade press that RDRAM is even being considered for future graphics boards. That sort of indicates that the price of RDRAM isn't going down to within 50% of DDR SDRAM in the next six months."
Bilow, May 24, 2000
"The thing to keep in mind is that with RIMMs at 1.5 to 2.0x SDRAM, and DDR DIMMs at 1.2 to 1.3x SDRAM DIMMs, the industry will have no hesitation to use DDR, and will drive the cost adder for DDR to zero in about 18 to 24 months." #reply-13767231
Bilow, Sep 25, 2000
"If the memory makers did start producing for the spot market, they would quickly drive spot market prices to around 75% over PC133 SDRAM prices, I would guess, and I've been expecting RIMM prices to drop to something like this for months." #reply-14451731
Bilow, Oct 24, 2000
"My expectation is that we will eventually see a RIMM penalty of around 50 to 100%." #reply-14645958
Bilow, Nov 15, 2000
"I expected RDRAM to come down in price to around a 50 to 100% adder above SDRAM, but not get below this." #reply-14812058
Bilow, Dec 19, 2000
"Heck, I've repeatedly stated on this thread that I expect the RIMM premium to eventually stabilize at 50 to 100% above SDRAM levels. That it is still way, way, way above those is something that I find surprising." #reply-15049728
Bilow, Mar 2, 2001
"I predicted quite some time ago that RDRAM would eventually drop to about a 50% premium over SDRAM, maybe that will happen someday, but not soon." #reply-15441862
Bilow, Mar 6, 2001
"(Translation of "niche" for mom and pop: RDRAM will remain at around 50 to 100% more expensive than the mainstream memory, in terms of dollars per bit, and won't achieve volumes more than around 10% of total memory production as measured in bits.)" #reply-15457548
Bilow, Mar 26, 2001
"Hi TheProphet; As I've stated repeatedly, RDRAM isn't going to get as cheap as 50% more expensive than SDRAM. By comparison, DDR will be around 10% over SDRAM around a year from now, and sooner in the agreements between the memory makers and their customers." #reply-15563086
"... the only restriction is that RDRAM prices are allowed to briefly dip below that limit due to over production issues, but such gluts will not last longer than 3 months." #reply-15563097
Bilow, Apr 28, 2001
"As I've stated repeatedly, RDRAM isn't going to get as cheap as 50% more expensive than SDRAM." #reply-15728703
Bilow, Jun 28, 2001
"For 18 months, memory designers have known for a certainty that (1) DDR would be available, and (2) that DDR would be cheaper than RDRAM. This is not to say that memory designers knew that RDRAM would stay expensive, just that they knew that DDR and SDRAM would remain considerably (i.e. 25 or 33%) cheaper. Given these facts, every designer went with DDR in order to avoid ending up with a COGS that was saddled with RDRAM." [Note to mom and pop, most of whom don't know how to calculate percentages. In the above, the 25% refers to how much DDR is cheaper than RDRAM, while the 33% refers to how much SDRAM is cheaper than RDRAM. This is the same as saying that RDRAM will be 33% more expensive than DDR, and 50% more expensive than SDRAM.] #reply-16010835
Bilow, Jun 29, 2001
"I've stated repeatedly that I expect the costs and prices of RIMMs to drop to around 50% over the costs and prices of SDRAM and DDR DIMMs. But man, I sure am waiting." #reply-16011397
Bilow, July 18, 2001
"I've never stated that RDRAM was always going to be expensive. Instead, I've consistently stated that RDRAM RIMMs are always going to be 50% more expensive than SDRAM or DDR DIMMs." #reply-16091413
Bilow, July 25, 2001
"Since the memory makers are predicting that 4Q01 will be the peak production quarter for RDRAM, and that it will decline afterwards, it's pretty simple to predict that RDRAM will drop to its natural price premium over SDRAM around the end of the year or early 2002. ... And when they see RIMMs at around a 50% premium over SDRAM, they may be so relieved at RDRAM finally getting cheap that they take the stock up." #reply-16128159
Bilow, July 28, 2001
"As I've stated repeatedly, RDRAM isn't going to get as cheap as 50% more expensive than SDRAM." #reply-16139352
If you really don't remember any of these, maybe you should see a doctor.
-- Carl |
