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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Maurice Winn who wrote (7338)8/17/2001 4:14:15 PM
From: LLCF  Respond to of 74559
 
<I wondered what the heck would happen when the debt levels were tested in a serious down market. They have now been tested and margin calls and market clearing have successfully handled the situation>

Hmmm, perhaps another test is in order? Actually, regardless of what happends I have no doubt that the market will "clear".

DAK



To: Maurice Winn who wrote (7338)8/17/2001 5:03:11 PM
From: KyrosL  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
>>I wondered what the heck would happen when the debt levels were tested in a serious down market. They have now been tested and margin calls and market clearing have successfully handled the situation

A very small portion of the debt pyramid has been tested, and so far the results are not encouraging -- as a buyer of Globalstar debt at few pennies on the dollar, I think you will agree. The acid test will come when the so-called subprime debt market as well as the home mortgage and home equity markets are tested.



To: Maurice Winn who wrote (7338)8/17/2001 8:55:29 PM
From: Moominoid  Respond to of 74559
 
I agree with all below except that there is no real problem :) Just not sure how big he prob is.

David, that's true, for the USA, but as a solution to alleged greenhouse warming, it's a minor contributor at best. All contributions are welcome of course.
I guess that new technology and ways of life will be the actual outcome. A bit like generals want to fight the previous war, but the next one is nothing like it, they prepare for nuclear war with cavalry. I suspect that either there is no real problem and even if there is, more efficient technologies and different ways of life will be the answer. As examples: telecommuting, internet solutions to physical needs - many journeys are to get or give information which people would prefer to transact in cyberspace, mind jobs instead of physical jobs, a rapidly dropping human population, photovoltaics becoming competitively priced, crops for energy, insulation, turbine/fuel cell combinations with 75% efficiency.

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Doing what with the carbon? Perhaps burning it in power stations using oxygen rather than air, then compressing the carbon dioxide and pouring it 400 metres under the ocean or dissolving it. I mentioned that my ex-boss did work on hydrogen as a mobile fuel in the early 1970s with Shell. He thought it was a good idea.

Exactly.

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Yes, the gases from volcanoes, which there is a lot of, come from the subducted material. When you subduct water, radiolarian ooze and the other stuff on the floor of the ocean, you are taking down hydrocarbons, water, bones and things which settle on the ocean floor. When those are super-compressed, super-heated, then let out a volcanic vent, it is quite a chemical reactor, which mixes with oxygen from the air and "BANG". The gases in pumice are not from air. They are the liquids in the magma which changed to gas as the pressure came off as it flew up the vent and into the atmosphere. That's my theory anyway.

Yes a mixture of subducted material and new magma from the interior which contains primitive gases too.

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On finance - I have minimal direct US stock holding - half short and half long and gradually shifting managed funds depending on their hedgeing and my expectations. 5 years ago I was 100% USD and GBP. Plan to begin buying USD assets when the AUD/Euro gets to a reasonable level. Maybe upwards of 65 US cents for AUD - gradually shifting back in.

David