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Technology Stocks : Global Crossing - GX (formerly GBLX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: changedmyname who wrote (13485)8/17/2001 5:23:04 PM
From: DWB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 15615
 
Had you ever bothered to read, you would note that for some time now I and a few others here have posted how obvious the signs were. Everything pointed to GX going down. The collar, the insider dumping at any price, the CSFB report, etc.

If everything was so crystal clear, you should have sold and shorted.

It's sad to say that I knew all along that this was going to happen

No, you guessed it was so. And you still didn't have the courage of your convictions to act. Robert decided the other way, and at least he acted upon it. So now you're telling us that unless we come around to your conclusions we're wrong. I don't buy that. And if you didn't believe your own analysis enough to act on it, why should any of us think you're right now?

But you seem to be implying that I sold all my stock, shorted it from 12 down to 4...

No, that's what you should have done. So why didn't you? Because you weren't any more sure than the rest of us, despite your statements to the contrary...

Was our opinion respected?

Hmmmm.. and here I always thought you had to earn respect. Did all of the doubters have data to back up their rationale, or just more guesses and conjecture? Were all of you respectful of the longs positions at all times? Check out some of the posts TO Robert if you want to see a lack of respect... CSFB might have gotten the pre-earnings "call" right, but it doesn't mean their rationale was.... it is possible to be right for the wrong reasons in life... just like it's possible to be wrong for the right reasons.

That is all that I asked for out of Robert. Acknowledge the simple fact that the stock is in trouble. That things aren't as rosy as they once seemed.

As rosy versus what point in time? You mean before they completed their network? Or before the CZN sale completed? Or before you heard that the DoD contract was cancelled, er... rebid... er.... contested by a bunch of companies who are worried about GX taking their business? Or are you just painting GX with the overall telecom malaise? How much of your "trouble" is attributed to the CSFB "bandwidth swap" commotion, that turned out to be a non-issue, or maybe the lease vs. IRU worry, that turned out to be a negative (from the CSFB perspective) no matter which side of the situation it came down on.... See, my problem is that the situation with GX is specific, and I haven't seen a specific fiscal analysis out of any of the doubters that shows me GX is in trouble. If you want to use CSFB as your rosetta stone, be my guest. But I think their analysis is flawed, i.e. wrong, and I wouldn't make a longterm investment decision based on their data.

So tell me Jason, why is the stock in trouble, specifically? Debt service?... show me the numbers shortfall. Think they are losing contracts?... which ones? The clarion call this morning was that the loss of the DoD contract would make other MNOs think there was something wrong with GX... now it turns out it was a bidding issue, and nothing to do with GX... So why aren't all the doubters on here telling us how comically wrong they were this morning about GX as a company? Think the economy is going south forever?... does that mean that MNO's aren't looking for cheap data communications? What is it that makes THE COMPANY a bad risk, not the stock. I've got time to wait out the market.... If the company survives, I will profit. So tell me specifics ... I'm listening.

DWB



To: changedmyname who wrote (13485)8/17/2001 5:36:45 PM
From: Sawtooth  Respond to of 15615
 
Most likely all those talking about what a POS GX is because of where it's at today vs a year ago are much better at picking good LT stock investments than I am. Almost all of my stocks are down big time from their 52 week highs.

........VVVVVVVVVVV ("What, Me Worry?" - Alfred E. Neuman, 1967)



To: changedmyname who wrote (13485)8/18/2001 7:34:17 PM
From: Douglas W. DeVries  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 15615
 
Jason:

I apologize for the terse tone to my message. I too am frustrated with respect to the performance of GX, the stock.
I responded to you the way I did because I was frustrated that Robert has opted not to post here anymore and your words seem to be a major reason why. We can all agree to disagree, but when we all start slinging mud at each other we all lose because our ability to decipher the long-term picture is greatly diminished.

FYI, I got out of GSTRF before I lost too much and my position was small. I broke even on XLA and I made a bundle on QCOM because I bought it at the end of 1998 and the beginning of 1999 before ERICY validated its technology in April of 1999. QCOM's market cap at the time was around $ 5 billion, if I'm not mistaken. There was a guy on the QCOM board named Gregg Powers who remained bullish throughout when everyone was slamming the stock and it stayed dormant or fell while the rest of the NASDAQ rocked. Gregg took his own share of abuse for maintaining his position but he always maintained his composure and in the end he was proven to be right, and I made a boatload of money in the process.

Now granted, QCOM never dipped below $5, but the market cap was in the same range as GX is now. The market in the fall of 1998 was also very poor, but nothing like the one we are in now on an extended basis. I think we need to consider carefully GX's current price in light of the current environment and the huge short position. Pessimism right now is every bit as powerful as the euphoria was back in 1999. Greed versus fear. I appreciate Robert because he has emphasized what is happening on a long-term basis in telecommunications. There is going to be fallout but I still believe that GX is one of the companies that will be around 10 years from now. This DOD contract thing is unfortunate but its timing and the motivation of the other players in the bid process is transparent.

I also owned CIENA when AT&T and its Lucent cronies pulled a fast one prior to a vote for a Tellabs/CIENA merger. CIENA dipped to $7 and change after Tellabs pulled out of the merger. Everyone wrote them off but they made a stunning reversal.

My point in all of this is that opposing views are necessary for these boards to be effective. You are upset because you maintain that Robert is wrong. I maintain that the jury is still out. Let's agree to disagree and refrain from insulting each other.

Have a good week-end.

Doug