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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Zeev Hed who wrote (81468)8/18/2001 9:29:26 AM
From: t2  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Zeev, Another thing about Palm. Any company that has to compete with Microsoft has an uphill climb. The Compaq I-Paq (Windows CE) had so much success that it became the number one unit on the market and so many other companies want to launch similiar products. It did this within 6 months of launching! Look for store placements to show Windows CE units a lot more than they did last fall---will make it very difficult for Palm to sell the high priced (high end) units and that is where the money is supposed to be made.

Reminds of all of those venture capital firms that did not want to fund new start ups if they knew MSFT would also be a competitor in a particular product.

On another note, your Nasdaq predictions are coming true. Congrats on your correct call...again.
I had also turned bearish on the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. Funds into the market are not flowing like they were prior to March 2000 to push the market up...ie. dip buyers are not there. The one group still getting inflows is the hedge or short funds!
Even the short interest does not seem that high on individual stocks even though it is at record levels--1 to 2% of float is not that high in this kind of market, imho.
The one big positive that may prevent a major crash is that the big mutual funds are still unloading technology stocks as the Q2. My old favorite, Janus, is now very light on technology which is a complete switch for them. Put/Call has been getting high lately (close to April type of levels).

Since you don't short, when do you see the next opportunity to go long on tech?

Do you play non tech groups at all?

I am holding non-tech longs in Gold/Natural Gas and some strong Euro plays.....and these have been working even while the Naz has been tanking.



To: Zeev Hed who wrote (81468)8/18/2001 7:40:52 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 99985
 
Zeev a better bet than they even get 1/4 that high again is that the go completely broke.

IMHO of course
M



To: Zeev Hed who wrote (81468)8/22/2001 2:21:11 PM
From: Crystal ball  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99985
 
Palm devices at about $300 ave, times 1 million units, that's less than 5% of the US total market for handhelds, is $300,000 per year. Multiply the fact that the 3rd world is not WIRED, not CABLED, the 2nd and 3rd and 4th worlds will be and for the most part are WIRELESS because it would take a hundred years to laydown telephone lines and electric grids but will only take about 5 years to layout wireless radio towers and village generators etc., and you have not just a population multiplier of 3 for India or 6 for China, but in actuallity 4 times the population impact on the buildout numbers going forward. How many 4xthe US markets are there, over 25, times 4, is 100 times the $300 million number, that means the market ANNUALLY for handhelds worldwide will be over $30 Billion. You can beleive it or not, but that is the way the REAL WORLD works, not the little American suburbs of number crunching downsizing lazy mddle class corporate frat rats who to this day do not understand HOW OR WHY Bill Gates and Larry Ellison MADE AND ARE MAKING SO MUCH MONEY.....REALISM....see the global world for what it is and then you can see what it will become....there was and is a LOT OF SMART MONEY IN PALM, and in NTAP...and in many other high tech companies. The world does not revolve totally around OIL and CARS like those Beach Boy or 1950's IBMmer America.....The World War 1 and WW2 generation saw the real OUTER WORLD, their bratty kids, the old timers now running this place, ruining this place, LOST AMERICA's PREDOMINATE PLACE in the world, why.....?......because they lost the REAL VISION of the SIZE AND SCOPE AND PLACE OF THE REST OF THE WORLD.....SCALE....your numbers do not SCALE....all start ups are smaller and then GROW. PALM too will GROW. $67 will be cheap in a year or 2. As for Greenspan, he did lose real money, LIQUIDITY and MARKET VALUE is real money, in that, it is real VALUE. Companies boroow on that, they do M&A on that, and that $10 Trillion Dollars of Liquidity was destroyed by Greenspan, it was not mere paper, it was not mere air. It was REAL. Yesterday's Fed drop in rates 25 basis points is still no enough, its positive carry, but it still is not OPEN CARRY. We will get there, sooner without the likes of idiots like Greenspan or his blind awstruck fans, but even with AG we will get there....this market will recover FULLY 100%....not IF (absent a nuclear war) but only a question of WHEN.....the same for solid companies like PALM and NTAP reaching their 52 week highs, not IF but WHEN AGAIN.
I am,
Truly your$,
-Crystal Ball