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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (75243)	8/18/2001 10:09:14 AM
From: EasyWay	Respond to of 116753

I am seeing commercial shorts of 81962 (+45%) and longs of 26735 (-43%). (Smotass.com - COT link). But as you point out these percentages are compared to what? I think you'd need to look at a 1 year graph of longs and shorts to really determine any kind of meaning. Besides, I think commercial traders are given too much credit when it comes to predicting the future. Could it be that they are simply locking in a profit at these prices because compared to the last several months, gold prices are relatively high right now? My own history at predicting has not been terrific but I think we are looking at a good possibility to at least go up and visit prices seen toward the end of '99 ($330 - $340) but for a very brief period. I will be looking to sell in that price range along with bunches of other people so the visit would be a short one as it was then. Time will tell, it always does. Easy

To: yard_man who wrote (75243)	8/18/2001 11:02:02 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116753

<I'm going to stay long and ... probably wrong.> When I first got wind of the COT's a little after 3:30pm EST on Friday, I took a walk on the beach by myself and asked myself again why I'm long all these gold stocks. All but one are profitable for me at this point, and it wouldn't have posed a problem for me to sell except for the fact that I'm convinced the USD is headed much lower. So, I remain long. I know the USD is very oversold short term and is due for a short term bounce. To think independently can be dangerous sometimes when the Big Money is aligned against you. But I think I'm fundamentally right rather than the Commercials here so I'll average down if these despairing Dudes get their way again here. To be a winner in the financial markets, one must have the courage to be oneself and think for oneself. One must know how to stand alone without first waiting for heralds and signs from above.

To: yard_man who wrote (75243)	8/18/2001 12:35:03 PM
From: long-gone	Respond to of 116753

We may need this sort to first give up, roll over, & also swing to gold and away from ??? Venture Capital: 'Elves' use support system to weather dot-com crash Friday, August 17, 2001 By JOHN COOK SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER They call themselves the Dead Elf Society. No, it's not some heavy-metal band. Nor is it a sequel to a Robin Williams movie. The Dead Elf Society is a group of laid-off dot-commers who are trying to maneuver through the high-tech meltdown by lending support to one another in a weird but wonderful way. You see, the Dead Elf Society takes its name from ELF Technologies, an Issaquah software company that hit hard times earlier this year -- cutting more than 100 employees, eliminating products and barely surviving on the fumes of dwindling venture capital dollars. (cont) seattlep-i.nwsource.com

To: yard_man who wrote (75243)	8/18/2001 9:36:33 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116753

I don't think any government is going to intervene in any way RE: gold. If any currencies of importance were tied to gold they might. Intervention, if it comes, is likely (I think) to take the form of interest rate changes. I think we are entering upon the great test of whether world-wide fiat currencies can be controlled. For the time being, I am betting by far most heavily against the continuation of the over-valued doillar. If General Motors doesn't want it--well, probably no one but me remembers the Al Capp parody in the 1950s with the character General Bullmoose. "What's good for General Bullmoose is good for the country." But I WILL say that I think no one is going to go broke owning gold. Just in case there's a real panic uptick in gold, I own calls on XAU. I was much scorned by "SliderontheBlack" who said the HUI index was much better. Then I find out that it's impossible to buy options on that index, and since options provide enormous leverage upwards, I think I did the right thing. They move 100% up for every 20% up move in mining stocks, at least. I say "Pfui on HUI!" I am not about to go building my own margined portfolio of the gold stocks in that index. I also own ASA, CEF, and PDG, for a medium-term increase in gold. And I have total disaster insurance of gold bullion in several forms. But all this is only about 5% of my net worth. I think it's enough for insurance. I have about 10% in BEGBX, the euro fund. I have about 5% in euro warrants and about 5-10% in FAX, the Pacific (mainly Aussie) bond fund. All this gives me a dollar-protection portfolio of about 25% of my net worth, unless you count oil stocks. And included in "net worth" is mortgage-free real estate. I guess I am laying this all out because I have found myself accused of lying and restating my positions ex post facto. So win or lose, this is in large part where I am right now--betting heavily against my own country's currency but only in small part by using gold.